Monday, 25 May 2020

Drafts Revisited: 2012

With the NHL and virtually every other sports league on pause, many media types are looking for ways to fill pages with something resembling news. One of the most popular ways this has been done is through historical redrafts. With this in mind, I thought it might be a good opportunity to look back at some of the Senators' drafts and see what could have been while also addressing some of the issues I have with how this exercise is normally done.

One thing about how redrafts are usually done that's always bothered me is the amount of hindsight used. Take this recent 2014 redraft as an example. While David Pastrnak is certainly one of the top players taken in the draft, there's no way that Florida would have taken him 24 spots higher than he actually went at first overall. I've put in some ground rules to address this as well as a few others.


  • If the pick is in the top 5, you players taken up to 5 spots after can be chosen. For top 10 picks it's 10 spots. For the rest of the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd rounds, players can be taken one full round (usually 30 picks) before they were actually selected. For the 4th round and beyond, any player is on the table (accept for undrafted players, because that would hurt my brain).
  • No trades or undoing trades. While ideally Ottawa would have taken Vladimir Tarasenko with their 1st rounder in 2010 instead of trading it for David Rundblad, we won't be undoing that trade here. While it definitely relates to the draft, it begins to wander too far into the other parts of a GM's job for this. Likewise, we won't be packaging picks to trade up or vice versa.
  • Everything can be taken into account. If a player had one great season but otherwise was average, that can be better than a player whose had a solid career, or not depending on circumstances. Positional needs? Value for a possible later trade? Hair colour? Everything is on the table, much like in a real draft.

So far we've looked at the 2010 Draft and gave the Sens some decent prospects despite only having 4 picks, as well as the 2011 Draft, where an already impressive haul was turned into an embarrassment of riches.

Today, we'll look at the last instalment, for now at least, of this series with the 2012 draft.

1st Round, 15th Overall

Actual Pick: Cody Ceci - D

Hockey fans in Ottawa are no doubt familiar with Cody Ceci by now. In 2011-12 he scored nearly a point per game for a very good 67's squad. His 60 points were second only to Dougie Hamilton among OHL defencemen that season. He quickly made his way to the NHL and scored three goals in 49 games in 2013-14, eventually reaching double digits in his third year with a 10 goal 2014-15 campaign. His offensive abilities then dried up however, and his defensive shortcomings were exposed for all to see now that he wasn't contributing at the other end either. Despite 7 goals in a 2018-19 season where he tied his career high with 26 points, he was traded in the off-season to Toronto as part of the Connor Brown and Nikita Zaitsev trade.

Updated Pick: Tomas Hertl - C (17th Overall, San Jose Sharks)

Hertl broke onto the scene in 2013 with a 4-goal performance against the Rangers, capped off by this incredible goal that all but ended Martin Biron's playing career. In his rookie season, Hertl scored 15 times in just 37 games. He'd struggle to immediately repeat that kind of offensive skill, although he did top 20 goals twice in the next 4 seasons, but he earned a reputation as a solid two-way player. His offense finally returned to his 2013-14 levels last season, as he scored 35 goals for the Sharks, second only to then-captain Joe Pavelski. Injuries and the overall implosion of the team around him hit Hertl this season, although he still finished with a very impressive 16 goals in 48 games and looks like he may be a key piece to the Sharks' rebuild, either as a player or an incredibly valuable trade chip. Hertl would have given the Sens not just the pure goal-scorer they've been looking for since Dany Heatley left town, but a bona fide first line centre that can excel in all aspects of the game.

3rd Round, 76th Overall

Actual Pick: Chris Driedger - G

While his draft season was nothing outstanding, he put up close to a .900 save percentage while splitting time with the Hitmen, Driedger took off after that, becoming one of the WHL's best goalies in his final two seasons before impressing with a short stint in Binghamton and making a handful of NHL appearances. He never managed to make good on the "goalie of the future" hype that at times popped up around him and he has since moved on to Florida, where in 12 appearances he's put up impressive numbers while battling with Sam Montembeault for the back-up job.

Updated Pick: Frederik Andersen - G (97th Overall, Anaheim Ducks)

We've yet to take a goalie in these three drafts as even with the full benefit of hindsight I've still been hesitant to pull the trigger. But we may as well follow the real Sens now given that Andersen is as close to a sure thing there is in today's NHL. While Andersen broke into the league in 2013-14 and quickly established himself as one of the best young goalies in the league, he eventually lost his job to another outstanding young goaltender in John Gibson. He was then traded to Toronto where he's played the past 4 seasons and made good on his potential, despite some admittedly streaky play and an average 2019-20 season. Andersen's .909 save percentage this season was the only time he's posted a mark below .910 in his 7 seasons (6 full seasons) in the league. That type of consistently is what you're looking for when you go out on a limb and take a goaltender, even if it's in the 3rd round.

3rd Round, 82nd Overall

Actual Pick: Jarrod Maidens - C

While the first two picks of the 2012 draft were nothing special for the Sens, Maidens and the rest of the Sens remaining picks didn't even appear in an NHL game, meaning the next five upgrades should be significant. Maidens battled concussions in his draft season but the Sens gambled that he would be able to make good on the potential he had shown with Owen Sound the season before. The gamble did not pay off as Maidens never played another game due to concussion problems.

Updated Pick: Colton Parayko - D (86th Overall, St. Louis Blues)

In 2011-12, Parayko put up 42 points in 53 games for Fort McMurray of the AJHL while also serving 65 PIMs. Unlike some players we've looked at earlier this series, however, upon making the move to college hockey with Alaska-Fairbanks, we managed to keep up his offensive performance while scaling back on his lofty penalty totals. After a brief stint in the AHL at the end of the 2014-15 season, Parayko played 79 games for St. Louis the following season and has become on of the more unheralded offensive contributors from the blueline in the game. While he doesn't have the mean streak he showed in his draft year anymore, at 6'6" and 230 lbs. Parayko is a unique player whose combination of skill and size were a major part in the Blues incredible championship run last season.

4th Round, 106th Overall

Actual Pick: Tim Boyle - D

The younger brother of NHL veteran Brian Boyle, Tim Boyle was an interesting selection as he was a top-end talent at the high school level. Boyle struggled to translate that skill to higher levels however, as he only played 15 games for Union College the following season before bouncing around in the lower minors. He has not played since the 2017-18 season where he split time between the Southern Professional Hockey League and the ECHL.

Updated Pick: Jaccob Slavin (120th Overall, Carolina Hurricanes)

Despite being a defensive defenceman, Slavin put up 30 points in 60 games in his draft year with the USHL's Chicago Steel, thanks in large part to 27 assists. In 62 games the following season he tallied 33 points and 28 assists. Slavin has remained much the same player throughout college and to the pro level, where he has very consistently put up 20-35 points while being one of the league's premier shut-down d-men. After taking players like Klingberg and Parayko to join Erik Karlsson on the blueline, the addition of Slavin serves as an excellent safety net to pair with any of those three to allow them to excel offensively knowing they have an elite defender with them.

5th Round, 136th Overall

Actual Pick: Robbie Baillargeon - C

Scoring at nearly a point per game rate for the USHL's Indiana Ice enticed the Sens to take Baillargeon in the 5th round in 2012. After a solid second USHL season split between the Ice and the Omaha Lancers, Baillargeon played three seasons at Boston University before transferring to Arizona State for his fourth and final NCAA season. While he played well on some good teams in college, it never amounted to an NHL deal as he played parts of two seasons in the ECHL before playing 50 games in 2018-19 for Milton Keynes in the Elite Ice Hockey League.

Updated Pick: Connor Brown (156th Overall, Toronto Maple Leafs)

Brown led the Erie Otters in scoring in all three of his seasons there, beating out Connor McDavid in his final two years, capped by a remarkable 128 point 2013-14 season, 21 up on teammate Dane Fox for the league lead. While he hasn't been able to recreate anything close to those numbers in the NHL, he scored a career-high 20 goals in his rookie season and this year set a new career high with 43 points for Ottawa and was set to make a push for a new career high in goals before the season was suspended. Brown has also become a very good defensive forward to go along with his solid offensive play, and was the key asset the Sens got from Toronto in the Cody Ceci trade. Brown now looks to be a major part of the team's future and since we've already passed on Cody Ceci, taking him in the 5th round ensures he stays a part of the organization.

6th Round, 166th Overall

Actual Pick: Francois Brassard - G

The second of two goalies the team took in 2012, Brassard split time with Louis Domingue for Patrick Roy's Quebec Remparts squad and formed the top duo in the league. When Domingue aged out following the season, Brassard took over the starting top and finished 3rd and 4th in the QMJHL in save percentage and GAA respectively. Brassard however, never took his game to the next level and went the rare Canadian college route by committing to Carleton for three seasons and is currently playing for the Maine Mariners of the ECHL.

Updated Pick: Vinny Hinostroza (169th Overall, Chicago Blackhawks)

While Hinostroza's USHL career showed some flashes, including 60 points in 46 games in 2012-13, he was never a particularly hot prospect. His time at Notre Dame saw him put up 76 points in 76 games over two seasons however and after nearly continuing that pace in the AHL, he found himself part of a Blackhawks team that still had some of that 2010-2015 dynasty shine left on them. Hinostroza has battled injuries and consistency throughout his career and was a casualty of Chicago's cap crunch as they sent him to Arizona in order to get out from Marian Hossa's contract. Consistency aside, Hinostroza has scored a very respectable 100 points in 246 career games in the NHL and has talent that could be of value to a young team like Ottawa when he's on his game.

7th Round, 196th Overall

Actual Pick: Mikael Wikstrand - D

Despite never playing an NHL game, Wikstrand was a decent choice with the team's last pick. He was a fairly regular player for Mora IK of the Swedish Allsvenskan in his draft year and after seeing his role and production increase the following two seasons he was picked up by Frolunda in the Swedish top division. While the Sens did sign him to an entry level deal and still hold his NHL rights, they've been unable to lure him away from Europe where he currently plays for Ak-Bars Kazan in the KHL.

Updated Pick: Nikita Gusev - LW (202nd Overall, Tampa Bay Lightning)

From one risky pick to another, the Sens end up taking Nikita Gusev with their 7th rounder. Originally drafted by the Lightning, Gusev quickly became a young star in the KHL and showed little desire to come over to North America. Tampa Bay traded his rights to Vegas who couldn't entice him over either, so they eventually gave up and flipped him to New Jersey, where he finally signed and put up 13 goals and 44 points in 66 games on a bad Devils team. While Gusev has the potential to be a top-end talent, there's no guarantee Ottawa would have been able to sign him or if they would have followed in the path of Tampa Bay and Vegas and given up on him. However, with Joakim Ryan the only other bona fide NHLer left on the board, the risks seems worth it.


After adding loads of talent in 2010 and especially 2011, this version of the Ottawa Senators added Tomas Hertl, Frederik Andersen, Colton Parayko, Jaccob Slavin, Connor Brown, Vinny Hinostroza, and Nikita Gusev to what is becoming a dominant prospect pool. In the actual 2012 draft, the Sens took a number of risks that didn't pan out. While it's normally wise to take the safest picks available in the draft, the updated selections of Andersen, Hinostroza, and Gusev all carry different types of risk even with the benefit of hindsight. Going into this draft, I was confident I would be able to improve on a disastrous draft. While it would be hard to argue that I haven't accomplished that, it's worth noting how many risks were required in order to get the highest possible ceiling in a draft class.

1 comment:

  1. Connor Brown has to be one the best +150 draft picks in many years , no ?

    ReplyDelete