One thing about how redrafts are usually done that's always bothered me is the amount of hindsight used. Take this recent 2014 redraft as an example. While David Pastrnak is certainly one of the top players taken in the draft, there's no way that Florida would have taken him 24 spots higher than he actually went at first overall. I've put in some ground rules to address this as well as a few others.
- If the pick is in the top 5, you players taken up to 5 spots after can be chosen. For top 10 picks it's 10 spots. For the rest of the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd rounds, players can be taken one full round (usually 30 picks) before they were actually selected. For the 4th round and beyond, any player is on the table (accept for undrafted players, because that would hurt my brain).
- No trades or undoing trades. While ideally Ottawa would have taken Vladimir Tarasenko with their 1st rounder in 2010 instead of trading it for David Rundblad, we won't be undoing that trade here. While it definitely relates to the draft, it begins to wander too far into the other parts of a GM's job for this. Likewise, we won't be packaging picks to trade up or vice versa.
- Everything can be taken into account. If a player had one great season but otherwise was average, that can be better than a player whose had a solid career, or not depending on circumstances. Positional needs? Value for a possible later trade? Hair colour? Everything is on the table, much like in a real draft.
Last time we took a look at the 2010 Draft where the Sens only had 4 picks but managed to snag Mark Stone in the 6th round. I stuck with Stone with that pick but added some more talent to the team ahead of him in the higher rounds.
Today, we'll jump ahead one year to 2011, where the team had a whopping 10 picks including 3 first rounders. This draft is a good one to look at in the lead-up to 2020 where Ottawa currently have 13 picks and 3 first rounders yet again. But instead of simply looking back at some of the stellar picks they made, let's also look at ways that they could have made even better picks with another redraft.
1st Round, 6th Overall
Actual Pick: Mika Zibanejad - C
After a 9 game trial following his draft season, the Sens sent Zibanejad back to Sweden where he continued his solid play from his draft year. After a stint in Binghamton during the 2012-13 lockout, Zibanejad scored 7 times in 42 games as the Sens made the playoffs in the shortened season. From there, he developed into a solid offensive player good for 20 goals. His biggest successes, however, came after he was sent to the Rangers in the 2016 off-season for Derick Brassard. Last season he topped 30 goals for the first time and had 41 in only 57 games this year before the season was paused. Brassard, for his part, was a key player in the 2017 playoff run but quickly fell off afterwards, but not before Pierre Dorion scored a king's ransom from Pittsburgh ahead of the 2018 deadline.
Updated Pick: Sean Couturier - C (8th Overall, Philadelphia Flyers)
While Zibanejad did turn out to be a very nice pick at 6th overall (trade aside), Sean Couturier is too tempting to pass up. Couturier jumped into the league a year ahead of Zibanejad and found a role as a two-way force almost immediately. He's scored over 30 goals in each of the past two seasons and had 22 in 69 games this year while transitioning from analytics darling to legitimate star. On top of this, his two-way ability more closely resembles what the team was looking for when they shipped Zibanejad to New York for Brassard in 2016, making it possible that Dorion would not have given up on a potential top line centre for immediate help.
1st Round, 21st Overall
Actual Pick: Stefan Noesen - RW
Noesen led the Plymouth Whalers in both points and penalty minutes in his draft season, making him a tantalizingly gritty player to take with the 21st pick of the draft. Noesen was the prospect traded for Bobby Ryan on a busy July 5, 2013 which saw Alfredsson leave while Ryan and Clarke MacArthur arrived, signalling the start of a new era for the team. Noesen never latched on in Anaheim and has since played for New Jersey, Pittsburgh and San Jose. While he's been able to secure a fairly steady NHL job and carved out a reputation as a solid defensive player, it's safe to say he's not the player the Sens or the Ducks hoped they were getting.
Updated Pick: Brandon Saad - LW (43rd Overall, Chicago Blackhawks)
After passing on Mika Zibanejad at 6th, the alternate Sens take a player who was once traded for Zibanejad's future teammate Artemi Panarin in Brandon Saad. This continues the trend of solid two-way forwards with offensive touch, as Saad is a fairly reliable 20 goal scorer who has topped 30 once in his career. While most of his success has come on loaded Blackhawks teams, it's worth noting that his 31 goal season was with the Blue Jackets and he was on pace for 29 goals on a bad Chicago squad this season.
1st Round, 24th Overall
Actual Pick: Matt Puempel - LW
After putting up over a point per game on an awful Peterborough Petes team in his draft year, the Sens used their second first round pick on Puempel. While he continued to put up big numbers, including a 30 goal campaign in his first full AHL season, Puempel was never able to transfer his scoring touch to the NHL, netting only 4 goals in 52 games with Ottawa. His best offensive stretch came in 2016-17 when he was claimed off waivers by the Rangers and scored 6 times in 27 games. This season, he's been unable to crack the roster of the historically bad Red Wings.
Updated Pick: William Karlsson - C (53rd Overall, Anaheim Ducks)
While I would have taken Karlsson over Saad, he fell just outside of the 30 pick boundary for reaching on a pick in the first three rounds. Taken in the second round, Karlsson was looking unremarkable for most of his career. That is until the Vegas Golden Knights took him in the 2017 Expansion Draft. Karlsson scored 43 times in 2017-18, more than doubling his career total and centred the team's top line in their unbelievable finals run in their inaugural season. While he hasn't come particularly close to matching that lofty goal total in the past two season, he's remained one of the team's top players and an excellent play driver as he and Paul Stastny give Vegas one of the league's top 1-2 punches down the middle. While the team went for two-way play with the first two picks, Karlsson gives them some offensive flair and fire power that should help with the loss of Zibanejad. John Gibson was a tempting option with this pick after he looked to be establishing himself as one of the league's top netminders, but his struggles this year go to show that even with the benefit of foresight, picking a goalie still presents its share of risk.
2nd Round, 61st Overall
Actual Pick: Shane Prince - LW
Ottawa took one of the 67's top offensive weapons with the final pick of the 2nd round, but Prince never really lived up to his OHL numbers. Although he did scored 20 goals twice with Binghamton, he only managed 3 goals in 44 games with Ottawa before they traded him and a 7th round pick to the Islanders for a 3rd. While he was marginally better on Long Island, he never was able to stick in the lineup and has played the past two seasons in Europe, currently with Dynamo Minsk in the KHL.
Updated Pick: Vincent Trocheck - C (64th Overall, Florida Panthers)
Before he fell victim to Florida's analytics purge at the trade deadline this year, Trocheck was one of the team's most reliable players. While an injuring in 2018-19, coming off his first (and so far only) 30 goal season, may ultimately prevent him from reaching his full-potential, he's another player that fits the Sean Couturier mold that, as the GM of the alternate dimension Sens, I've been targeting. Jordan Binnington is the other option with this pick, but just like with John Gibson, there's still too much uncertainty in his game to justify passing on Trocheck.
4th Round, 96th Overall
Actual Pick: Jean-Gabriel Pageau - C
After getting into 9 games during the lockout shortened 2013 season, Pageau was crucial to the Sens upsetting Montreal in the first round of the playoffs with a hat-trick in game 3 of the series. He also scored 4 goals, including the double OT winner, in game 2 of the 2017 2nd round series against the Rangers. These two performances, which rank in the upper echelon of Ottawa Senators' playoff moments, made him a fan favourite. When he wasn't turning into Mario Lemieux in the playoffs, Pageau was a rock solid two-way player who could be counted on to provide double digit goals year in and year out. After a promotion to the first line this year, Pageau scored 24 times in 60 games before being traded to and subsequently signing an extension with the New York Islanders. Fittingly, the trade got Ottawa a first and second round pick in the 2020 draft, which has many drawing comparisons to the 2011 Sens draft where Pageau was taken.
Updated Pick: Johnny Gaudreau - LW (104th Overall, Calgary Flames)
Lord forgive me for this. While Pageau topped 20 goals for the first time in his career this year, Gaudreau has done it 4 times and was on pace to do it again this season. He's also scored 30 twice, including a career high 36 in 2018-19 where he also notched a career high in points with 99. While he's not the two-way presence Pageau is and has struggled along with many on the Flames this season, he's certainly the better player as well as a legitimate top-line scoring threat. While it hurts to lose all the memories that Pageau's provided for the franchise, having Johnny Gaudreau on the team makes Ottawa a much better team. And if you really can't bear to lose the chant, Gaudreau and Pageau do rhyme.
5th Round, 126th Overall
Actual Pick: Fredrik Claesson - D
A solid two-way defenceman, Claesson is part of the reason that makes this draft class so special for the Sens, despite the lack of success in the early rounds, the team continued to find talent with their later picks. While he was never a particularly high-end player, Claesson played a big role in the team's 2016-17 success, with a career-high 3 goals in only 33 games. The team moved on after the 2017-18 season and he played 37 games with the Rangers the following year. After being signed by the Hurricanes in the off-season, Claesson spent his entire time with the organization in the minors before getting a chance with the Devils as part of the Sami Vatanen trade. While he may only be a borderline NHLer, the Sens did well to get some solid production out of a 5th round pick.
Updated Pick: Andrew Shaw - RW (139th Overall, Chicago Blackhawks)
After establishing himself as a elite level grinder and pest with a goal-scoring touch for the Blackhawks, winning two cups in the process, Shaw wound up in Montreal as a cap casualty, where he would often be front and centre in battles with the rival Senators. Shaw is a solid two-way player but his offence hasn't quite reached the level it looked like it might, as his 20 goal 2013-14 season still stands as his career high, despite being only his third one in the league. This season, Shaw found himself back in Chicago but has battled injuries and his future production may be due to take a dive. That said, he was a very nice player for 8 seasons and a major part of the 2015 Stanley Cup champion Blackhawks, and his grit replaces some of what the team lost by taking Gaudreau instead of Pageau one round earlier.
6th Round, 156th Overall
Actual Pick: Darren Kramer - LW
One of the only two picks from this Sens' class not to make it to the NHL, Kramer was a player from a bygone era. Playing for the Spokane Chiefs in 2010-11, Kramer amassed a whopping 306(!) PIM in 68 games. He kept that pace up in the pros, topping out at 284 PIM in 2014-15 with Binghamton. Unfortunately for Kramer while he once scored 22 goals in junior, he never reached double digits at any pro level and is now playing in senior leagues.
Updated Pick: Josh Manson - D (160th Overall, Anaheim Ducks)
The actual 2011 draft saw the Sens take 5 forwards with the first 5 picks, we go one step further waiting until the 7th pick to finally take a defenceman. Manson was a force on the blueline with the BCHL's Salmon Arm Silverbacks, scoring 12 goals and earning 80 PIM in 57 games during his draft season. He hasn't changed much since his debut in the 2014-15 season. For his career he's scored 21 goals and been given 348 PIM in 385 games, all with Anaheim. While he may not be the most skilled or even most effective player, Manson gives Ottawa a pillar on the blueline with the ability to chip in a handful of goals a year.
6th Round, 171st Overall
Actual Pick: Max McCormick - LW
It's hard to call a player with 10 points in 71 career games a steal, but Max McCormick provides the Sens with plenty of bang for their buck in the late rounds. Much like Darren Kramer, McCormick had triple digit PIM in his draft year, with 102 for the USHL's Sioux City Musketeers. Unlike Kramer, however, backed that up with continued offensive success. Over three seasons at Ohio State, McCormick averaged nearly a point per game while still being physical and a thorn in the side of the opposition. McCormick continued to play with a mean streak in Binghamton, notching triple digit PIM and double digit goals in all of his three full seasons with the B-Sens. While he was never able to transfer his offensive abilities to the NHL, he played the role of pest beautifully in parts of 4 seasons with Ottawa before being shipped to Colorado for prospect JC Beaudin in 2019.
Updated Pick: Dylan DeMelo - D (179th Overall, San Jose Sharks)
The man, the myth, the legend himself. Dylan DeMelo became a fan favourite in parts of two seasons with the Senators, not just for his steady presence but also for his legendary acting chops on social media. Now, the team is able to get him seven years earlier without having to lose Erik Karlsson in the process. Much like Manson, DeMelo gives the Sens a defensive force on the blueline, although DeMelo is a more skill-based defender while Manson's strength is physicality. DeMelo may not be able to do much offensively, with only 7 goals in 269 career games, but on a blueline that already has Erik Karlsson and with 2010 pick John Klingberg waiting in the wings, a calm and cautious player fits the bill perfectly.
7th Round, 186th Overall
Actual Pick: Jordan Fransoo - D
The other player, along with Darren Kramer, from this year's Sens' class not to make the NHL, Fransoo was a physical defensive defenceman out of the WHL. Fransoo never did end up signing with Ottawa, and instead attended the University of Saskatchewan for four years before playing in small leagues in Western Canada.
Updated Pick: Ondrej Palat - LW (208th Overall, Tampa Bay)
A stand-out 39 goal performance in his final year of draft eligibility was enough for Tampa to take the 20-year old with one of the draft's last picks. He burst onto the scene soon after with a 23 goal rookie season in 2013-14 followed up by a 63 point sophomore campaign the following year. While he's cooled off a bit since, sitting around the 40 point mark and just under 20 goals most seasons, he's been an integral part to the dominant squads the Lightning have put together in recent years and would have been a steal for Ottawa in the seventh round.
7th Round, 204th Overall
Actual (and Updated) Pick: Ryan Dzingel - C
At the time, Dzingel was playing in the still mostly unheralded USHL for the Lincoln Stars, but was putting up solid offensive numbers. Nothing in his subsequent years at Ohio State, Binghamton, or even Ottawa would have particularly suggested that he would one day be a 20 goal scorer. But his skill eventually blossomed as he was a key piece to the 2016-17 Sens before breaking out with 23 and 26 goals in 2017-18 and 2018-19 respectively on lesser teams. He was sent to Columbus ahead of the 2019 trade deadline and has not been especially productive for Carolina this season, but for a player taken after 203 others, he's carved himself out a nice career.
The Sens 2011 draft played a major part in shaping the successes the team would have during the 2010s. Despite the stellar draft, I was able to find 9 better picks as the team ends up with Sean Couturier, Brandon Saad, William Karlsson, Vincent Trocheck, Johnny Gaudreau, Andrew Shaw, Josh Manson, Dylan DeMelo, and Ondrej Palat, with only Ryan Dzingel remaining. If there's a lesson in this it's probably that while there are often better players available, picking a cohort of solid NHL players like the Sens did in 2011 is no small feat. Does this mean I should stop this exercise given that there's no real benefit? Of course not! In 2012, the only NHLers the team drafted were Cody Ceci and Chris Driedger. With 7 picks and the benefit of full hindsight, we should be able to improve this team even more next time!
4th Round, 96th Overall
Actual Pick: Jean-Gabriel Pageau - C
After getting into 9 games during the lockout shortened 2013 season, Pageau was crucial to the Sens upsetting Montreal in the first round of the playoffs with a hat-trick in game 3 of the series. He also scored 4 goals, including the double OT winner, in game 2 of the 2017 2nd round series against the Rangers. These two performances, which rank in the upper echelon of Ottawa Senators' playoff moments, made him a fan favourite. When he wasn't turning into Mario Lemieux in the playoffs, Pageau was a rock solid two-way player who could be counted on to provide double digit goals year in and year out. After a promotion to the first line this year, Pageau scored 24 times in 60 games before being traded to and subsequently signing an extension with the New York Islanders. Fittingly, the trade got Ottawa a first and second round pick in the 2020 draft, which has many drawing comparisons to the 2011 Sens draft where Pageau was taken.
Updated Pick: Johnny Gaudreau - LW (104th Overall, Calgary Flames)
Lord forgive me for this. While Pageau topped 20 goals for the first time in his career this year, Gaudreau has done it 4 times and was on pace to do it again this season. He's also scored 30 twice, including a career high 36 in 2018-19 where he also notched a career high in points with 99. While he's not the two-way presence Pageau is and has struggled along with many on the Flames this season, he's certainly the better player as well as a legitimate top-line scoring threat. While it hurts to lose all the memories that Pageau's provided for the franchise, having Johnny Gaudreau on the team makes Ottawa a much better team. And if you really can't bear to lose the chant, Gaudreau and Pageau do rhyme.
5th Round, 126th Overall
Actual Pick: Fredrik Claesson - D
A solid two-way defenceman, Claesson is part of the reason that makes this draft class so special for the Sens, despite the lack of success in the early rounds, the team continued to find talent with their later picks. While he was never a particularly high-end player, Claesson played a big role in the team's 2016-17 success, with a career-high 3 goals in only 33 games. The team moved on after the 2017-18 season and he played 37 games with the Rangers the following year. After being signed by the Hurricanes in the off-season, Claesson spent his entire time with the organization in the minors before getting a chance with the Devils as part of the Sami Vatanen trade. While he may only be a borderline NHLer, the Sens did well to get some solid production out of a 5th round pick.
Updated Pick: Andrew Shaw - RW (139th Overall, Chicago Blackhawks)
After establishing himself as a elite level grinder and pest with a goal-scoring touch for the Blackhawks, winning two cups in the process, Shaw wound up in Montreal as a cap casualty, where he would often be front and centre in battles with the rival Senators. Shaw is a solid two-way player but his offence hasn't quite reached the level it looked like it might, as his 20 goal 2013-14 season still stands as his career high, despite being only his third one in the league. This season, Shaw found himself back in Chicago but has battled injuries and his future production may be due to take a dive. That said, he was a very nice player for 8 seasons and a major part of the 2015 Stanley Cup champion Blackhawks, and his grit replaces some of what the team lost by taking Gaudreau instead of Pageau one round earlier.
6th Round, 156th Overall
Actual Pick: Darren Kramer - LW
One of the only two picks from this Sens' class not to make it to the NHL, Kramer was a player from a bygone era. Playing for the Spokane Chiefs in 2010-11, Kramer amassed a whopping 306(!) PIM in 68 games. He kept that pace up in the pros, topping out at 284 PIM in 2014-15 with Binghamton. Unfortunately for Kramer while he once scored 22 goals in junior, he never reached double digits at any pro level and is now playing in senior leagues.
Updated Pick: Josh Manson - D (160th Overall, Anaheim Ducks)
The actual 2011 draft saw the Sens take 5 forwards with the first 5 picks, we go one step further waiting until the 7th pick to finally take a defenceman. Manson was a force on the blueline with the BCHL's Salmon Arm Silverbacks, scoring 12 goals and earning 80 PIM in 57 games during his draft season. He hasn't changed much since his debut in the 2014-15 season. For his career he's scored 21 goals and been given 348 PIM in 385 games, all with Anaheim. While he may not be the most skilled or even most effective player, Manson gives Ottawa a pillar on the blueline with the ability to chip in a handful of goals a year.
6th Round, 171st Overall
Actual Pick: Max McCormick - LW
It's hard to call a player with 10 points in 71 career games a steal, but Max McCormick provides the Sens with plenty of bang for their buck in the late rounds. Much like Darren Kramer, McCormick had triple digit PIM in his draft year, with 102 for the USHL's Sioux City Musketeers. Unlike Kramer, however, backed that up with continued offensive success. Over three seasons at Ohio State, McCormick averaged nearly a point per game while still being physical and a thorn in the side of the opposition. McCormick continued to play with a mean streak in Binghamton, notching triple digit PIM and double digit goals in all of his three full seasons with the B-Sens. While he was never able to transfer his offensive abilities to the NHL, he played the role of pest beautifully in parts of 4 seasons with Ottawa before being shipped to Colorado for prospect JC Beaudin in 2019.
Updated Pick: Dylan DeMelo - D (179th Overall, San Jose Sharks)
The man, the myth, the legend himself. Dylan DeMelo became a fan favourite in parts of two seasons with the Senators, not just for his steady presence but also for his legendary acting chops on social media. Now, the team is able to get him seven years earlier without having to lose Erik Karlsson in the process. Much like Manson, DeMelo gives the Sens a defensive force on the blueline, although DeMelo is a more skill-based defender while Manson's strength is physicality. DeMelo may not be able to do much offensively, with only 7 goals in 269 career games, but on a blueline that already has Erik Karlsson and with 2010 pick John Klingberg waiting in the wings, a calm and cautious player fits the bill perfectly.
7th Round, 186th Overall
Actual Pick: Jordan Fransoo - D
The other player, along with Darren Kramer, from this year's Sens' class not to make the NHL, Fransoo was a physical defensive defenceman out of the WHL. Fransoo never did end up signing with Ottawa, and instead attended the University of Saskatchewan for four years before playing in small leagues in Western Canada.
Updated Pick: Ondrej Palat - LW (208th Overall, Tampa Bay)
A stand-out 39 goal performance in his final year of draft eligibility was enough for Tampa to take the 20-year old with one of the draft's last picks. He burst onto the scene soon after with a 23 goal rookie season in 2013-14 followed up by a 63 point sophomore campaign the following year. While he's cooled off a bit since, sitting around the 40 point mark and just under 20 goals most seasons, he's been an integral part to the dominant squads the Lightning have put together in recent years and would have been a steal for Ottawa in the seventh round.
7th Round, 204th Overall
Actual (and Updated) Pick: Ryan Dzingel - C
At the time, Dzingel was playing in the still mostly unheralded USHL for the Lincoln Stars, but was putting up solid offensive numbers. Nothing in his subsequent years at Ohio State, Binghamton, or even Ottawa would have particularly suggested that he would one day be a 20 goal scorer. But his skill eventually blossomed as he was a key piece to the 2016-17 Sens before breaking out with 23 and 26 goals in 2017-18 and 2018-19 respectively on lesser teams. He was sent to Columbus ahead of the 2019 trade deadline and has not been especially productive for Carolina this season, but for a player taken after 203 others, he's carved himself out a nice career.
The Sens 2011 draft played a major part in shaping the successes the team would have during the 2010s. Despite the stellar draft, I was able to find 9 better picks as the team ends up with Sean Couturier, Brandon Saad, William Karlsson, Vincent Trocheck, Johnny Gaudreau, Andrew Shaw, Josh Manson, Dylan DeMelo, and Ondrej Palat, with only Ryan Dzingel remaining. If there's a lesson in this it's probably that while there are often better players available, picking a cohort of solid NHL players like the Sens did in 2011 is no small feat. Does this mean I should stop this exercise given that there's no real benefit? Of course not! In 2012, the only NHLers the team drafted were Cody Ceci and Chris Driedger. With 7 picks and the benefit of full hindsight, we should be able to improve this team even more next time!
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