One thing about how redrafts are usually done that's always bothered me is the amount of hindsight used. Take this recent 2014 redraft as an example. While David Pastrnak is certainly one of the top players taken in the draft, there's no way that Florida would have taken him 24 spots higher than he actually went at first overall. I've put in some ground rules to address this as well as a few others.
- If the pick is in the top 5, you players taken up to 5 spots after can be chosen. For top 10 picks it's 10 spots. For the rest of the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd rounds, players can be taken one full round (usually 30 picks) before they were actually selected. For the 4th round and beyond, any player is on the table (accept for undrafted players, because that would hurt my brain).
- No trades or undoing trades. While ideally Ottawa would have taken Vladimir Tarasenko with their 1st rounder in 2010 instead of trading it for David Rundblad, we won't be undoing that trade here. While it definitely relates to the draft, it begins to wander too far into the other parts of a GM's job for this. Likewise, we won't be packaging picks to trade up or vice versa.
- Everything can be taken into account. If a player had one great season but otherwise was average, that can be better than a player whose had a solid career, or not depending on circumstances. Positional needs? Value for a possible later trade? Hair colour? Everything is on the table, much like in a real draft.
With all that in mind, let's take a look at the draft that took place one decade ago in 2010. The Sens didn't pick until the 3rd round, but let's see if we can still find some value in the later rounds.
3rd Round, 76th Overall
Actual Pick: Jakub Culek - LW
After a few seasons in Czech junior leagues, Culek played for the Rimouski Oceanic of the QMJHL in his draft year, notching 47 points in 63 games. Culek's intriguing blend of size, skill, and two-way play made him a player worth taking a shot on early on day 2 of the draft. Culek's career didn't go the way he or the team would have hoped, as he spent most of his time with the team in the ECHL before eventually heading back to his native Czech Republic in 2015. He played a few games for Plzen that season but hasn't played since, save for a brief cameo HC Chotikov B in the Czech 7th division this season, a team with an average age over 36 and two players in their fifties.
Updated Pick: Bryan Rust - RW (80th Overall, Pittsburgh Penguins)
The same season Culek was out of the Sens organization, Rust made his debut with Pittsburgh, scoring a goal and notching two points in 14 games. The next year he scored 4 times in 41 games and added 6 more during the playoffs as the Penguins won their first of two consecutive Stanley Cups. Before this season was postponed, Rust had a career-high 27 goals in 55 games while firmly placing himself consistently in the Penguins' top 6. A player of Rust's calibre would either be a key piece to the the Sens both today and in the future, or have received a haul similar or perhaps greater than the one they got for Ryan Dzingel.
4th Round, 106th Overall
Actual Pick: Marcus Sorensen - LW
The team actually did pretty well for themself with this pick, drafting a solid two-way player who notched 17 goals in 2018-19. Unfortunately he did that for the Sharks as the Sens never signed Sorensen to an entry-level contract, allowing him to sign with San Jose in 2016.
Updated Pick: John Klingberg - D (131st Overall, Dallas Stars)
Klingberg was never a star in the Swedish junior leagues, but played well enough that Dallas thought he was worth using a late pick on. Klingberg broke through with Frolunda in 2013-14 and continued his stellar play the next year in North America. That year he broke into the NHL and immediately became one of the league's top offensive blueliners and has continued to develop his defensive game to become a high-end all-around player. This progression is similar to the one Erik Karlsson was in the middle of at this time and what the team was probably looking for when they drafted Cody Ceci in 2012. While Klingberg may have ultimately followed Karlsson out of town as a Senator, the four years they would have had together would have given Ottawa one of the leagues top bluelines and may have even given the team reason to keep the core together.
6th Round, 178th Overall
Actual (and Updated) Pick: Mark Stone - RW
There's really no debate over this pick, with Frederik Andersen the only other available player even worth considering (and he ended up re-entering the draft in 2012, creating a multiverse that my mind is not equipped to consider right now). Stone broke out immediately after his draft year, scoring 106 points for the Brandon Wheat Kings in 2010-11. When he made the team full-time in 2014-15, he immediately scored at least 20 goals in 5 straight seasons, notching 33 last year (although the last 5 came with the Golden Knights) and had 21 for Vegas in 65 games before the season was suspended this year. Stone also developed into one of the games premier two-way players and is beginning to finally see some Selke love outside of the analytics community. Now, while this ranking would suggest that I'd have Stone lower than Klingberg, that is not the case. Here is a perfect example of what I meant when I outlined that anything could be considered. In this case, I knew Stone would still be available with the 178th pick, whereas Klingberg was not. So, much like a real NHL GM would, I chose to take Klingberg ahead of Stone to maximize the value of the draft. Does removing the risk of Stone going off the board and having to settle for Frederik Andersen and the multiverse of madness make this unrealistic? Absolutely but so is the entire concept of deciding that only the Sens can benefit from hindsight. We've still got one more pick to make so we better move on before this world I've created begins to collapse in on me.
7th Round, 196th Overall
Actual Pick: Bryce Aneloski - D
Aneloski was an offensive defencemen who put up good numbers for Cedar Rapids of the USHL in his draft year, scoring 15 goals and 54 points in 60 games. His impressive college numbers during three years at Nebraska wasn't enough to convince the Sens, or any NHL team, to sign him though, as he latched on with the Orlando Solar Bears of the ECHL. From there Aneloski would keep putting up good to great numbers in the ECHL but could never even stick in the AHL and ultimately never came close to making the NHL. He last played for the ECHL's Kansas City Mavericks in 2017-18.
Updated Pick: Zach Trotman - D (210th Overall, Boston Bruins)
Trotman was the last player taken in 2010 and doesn't particularly stand out, then or now. Trotman had a decent freshman year at Lake Superior State which was apparently all the Bruins needed to see to make him Mr. Irrelevant in 2010. While he's not the only player available to have cracked the NHL, he does have something the others don't: a proven ability to score in the NHL. Trotman's three career goals are three more than the rest of the available players combined. His 91 career games blows past second place Patrick Holland's 5. While Trotman hasn't scored since 2014-15, he has played 8 games for the Penguins this year, making him the only real option for the Sens to take at this point. He's no star, hell, he's barely an NHLer, but while there is the occasional Pavel Datsyuk in the late rounds, often finding a guy who can make the team in the 7th is a major victory.
So there you have it, the Senators have added Bryan Rust, John Klingberg, and Zach Trotman to their 2010 prospect pool, a definite boost to a team who's about to go through a rebuild after seeing their Stanley Cup window slam shut in the coming season. Next time, we'll look at the 2011 draft which ended up playing a major part in shaping the future of the team. Does the team still end up with the likes of Zibanejad, Pageau, and Dzingel? And what about the other two first round picks? Only fake time travel gimmicks will tell...
Great article. Nice digging into the history.
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