The Ideal Sens Team

My last post (the one being considered "the triumphant return of the king" or "a cesspool of babbling crap" depending on who you listen too) touched on how, despite the deep, deep issues with the Ottawa Senators on and off the ice, I loved watching them play and even felt... good? Well that's not relevant anymore. No, now we're gonna blow this team up. Not fully, as the pieces are in place already for a rebuild, but instead, let's look at what this team could be in the future, starting with the ideal team and working our way towards a realistic scenario of what this team could look like.

The Ideal Team

Connor McDavid (Clone)-Connor McDavid-Connor McDavid (Clone)

Connor McDavid (Clone)-Connor McDavid (Clone)-Connor McDavid (Clone)

Connor McDavid (Clone)-Connor McDavid (Clone)-Connor McDavid (Clone)

Connor McDavid (Clone)-Connor McDavid (Clone)-Connor McDavid (Clone)

Connor McDavid (Clone)-Connor McDavid (Clone)

Connor McDavid (Clone)-Connor McDavid (Clone)

Connor McDavid (Clone)-Connor McDavid (Clone)

Connor McDavid (Clone, Genetically Modified to Play Goalie)

Connor McDavid (Clone, Same as the Other Goalie, but Catches Right to confuse the competition)

So this is the ideal Ottawa Senators team. However, this is unrealistic, obviously, as Melnyk would never be able to afford to pay this team. So, instead, let's go with a different approach.

The 'Everything Goes Right' Team

Brady Tkachuk-Colin White-Mark Stone

Ryan Dzingel-Matt Duchene-Drake Batherson

Alex Formenton-Logan Brown-Nick Paul

Rudolfs Balcers-Chris Tierney-Filip Chlapik

Thomas Chabot-Dylan DeMelo

Christian Wolanin-Christian Jaros

Max Lajoie-Chris Wideman

Filip Gustavsson

Marcus Hogberg

So this is a team where everything goes "right" as evidence by the title. This team is ignoring any possible acquisitions while still accounting for players leaving via free agency. This team assumes that prospects will develop to their full potential, which we know will never happen 100% of the time. The line combinations are just guesses and the second defence pair is structured like that solely so I can put a Christian-Christian pairing on the team. Start working on nicknames now, application may be filed in the comment section.

This team does have many issues beyond the idealist approach. For starters, the defence is weak. Chabot is great and DeMelo is possibly an ideal partner for him, but after that, even if players develop accordingly there is a steep decline in talent. With that in mind, let's take a look at an even more idealistic team.

The 'Everything Goes Right and We Acquire Some More Talent' Team

Brady Tkachuk-Colin White-Mark Stone

Ryan Dzingel-Matt Duchene-Oliver Bjorkstrand

Alex Formenton-Logan Brown-Drake Batherson

Rudolfs Balcers-Chris Tierney-Filip Chlapik

Thomas Chabot-Dylan DeMelo

Christian Wolanin-Justin Faulk

Max Lajoie-Christian Jaros

Filip Gustavsson

Marcus Hogberg

As you may notice, this team is only slightly different from the previous scenario, this is because, if all the prospects develop as they should, the Sens will have a damn good team, but that goes for most rebuilders. Additions have been made based on potential free agents from the 2020 and 2021 classes, which is when the Sens could probably expect to start seriously thinking about contending again. It does not involve trades because future markets are nearly impossible to predict and situations could arise overnight (see Kyle Turris). We've replaced Nick Paul who, even if he develops well (and he has looked good in limited minutes this season), he likely tops out as a solid bottom 6 forward, but if Ottawa wants to truly contend, they need some serious production from that part of the lineup. Paul is fine and could be a weapon as the 13th forward, but he likely does not have a regular spot in the lineup of an elite team. His replacement, Oliver Bjorkstrand, slots onto the 2nd line, pushing Batherson down to the 3rd line which is probably better suited for him as he could feast on opponent's weaker defenders. I've always liked Bjorkstrand and think he has potential to be a high-end sniper in the league. A line with him alongside Dzingel and Duchene would be a nightmare for the other teams to defend, while the top line could act as a more all-around unit playing big minutes.

On the blueline, we have said goodbye to Chris Wideman. I've always liked Wideman and firmly believe that he was, and still is, underrated as he has produced fairly consistently for the Sens when healthy. However, he is not young and will be in his 30s by the time the team looks to contend. He likely would only serve in a 3rd pairing role and could garner a considerable return at the deadline this year. (For the record, I feel much the same way about Matt Duchene, but the targets to surpass, or even simply replace his production are limited so Duchene stays). Justin Faulk is an interesting choice to slot into the top 4 but, despite seemingly being forecasted as the odd-man out of Carolina's stacked d-core, he is a highly skilled player, much in the ilk of Wideman, only better. If he plays out his contract with Carolina, he likely does not re-sign with the team, if he is traded before his contract ends, he may still move as he would likely be acquired as a rental for a Cup run.

The left side still looks weak beyond Chabot, but the 2022 free agent class of left-handed defencemen could include the likes of Hampus Lindholm, Olli Maatta, and Calvin de Haan, so a deadline acquisition could help shore up that position, but let's not get too far ahead of ourselves here.

All in all, this looks like a very solid team with a few weaknesses. Those weaknesses could easily be addressed however, so this team looks like it would definately have the potential to do some damage in the post-season.

The 'Guy Boucher is Not Only Still Around but Somehow Also Controlling the Entire Organization' Team

Magnus Paajarvi-Tom Pyatt-Gabriel Dumont

Zack Smith-Jean-Gabriel Pageau-Max McCormick

Mikkel Boedker-Former Lightning-Former Lightning

Former Lightning-Taylor Pyatt-Former Lightning

Mark Borowiecki-Cody Ceci

Dion Phaneuf-Former Lightning (Idk, maybe Coburn?)

Ben Harpur-Former Lightning

Mike Condon

Dwayne Roloson

Okay, so this might be a little extreme (Cody Ceci is still pretty young, you don't feed a baby steak you know!) but I think he all need to prepare for a world where Guy Boucher maintains at least some influence over the roster foundation. But first, a quick word about Guy Boucher. I honestly love the guy. Watching him on the bench going nuts has become a sort of national pastime over the past 3 years. For all the hate it gets, I still maintain that his 1-3-1 system has some merit and was in part (though certainly not as much as dumb luck or Erik Karlsson, or Craig Anderson, or Bobby Ryan, or, well, you get the idea) responsible for the run to the conference final in 2017. That said, Boucher is desperately trying to play players who fit his style and, whether or not the style is effective, these players seem to do more harm than good in most situations.

Now, about those players. For the most part, these players are all the current Sens that I did not include in any of the other proposed teams. Putting aside the totally serious new additions like Dumont, Cobrun, Phaneuf, Roloson and Taylor Pyatt, I want to look at why these players were excluded from my vision of the future of the team. The likes of Paajarvi, Pyatt, McCormick, Harpur, and Condon is pretty simple, they are not good enough. There really isn't anything deeper than that, the play of these players is not at an NHL level. In some cases, it was at one point, in others they were just destined to be Quad-A guys. No hard feelings here, this is just how it works. Smith and Pageau are more interesting, I personally love both of them and they are both solid bottom-6 players, but it is important for the Sens to look to the future. In 3 years or so, they will, in all likelihood, have lost a step. When you factor in the younger players who are coming up that they would be blocking, it does not seem reasonable to have these two playing everyday. Plus, contracts aside, they would both be attractive options for teams looking to add some two-way depth at the deadline, maybe they could even get a mid-round pick or a mildly intriguing prospect. That leaves us with four players left whose future and role are much more difficult to determine, they will get their own paragraph because this has been a big block of words and you deserve a break. Maybe even go outside and take a walk, I'm not going anywhere.

Okay so you didn't take that walk. That's fine, there's nothing I can do about that. Anyway, we left off with four (4) players left to project (actually 7 but don't worry about that yet). We'll start with Mikkel Boedker. Boedker doesn't really fit in with the first group as he definitely still has enough talent to stay in the league, but I am hesitant to put him in with Pageau and Smith because he is a skilled player that may fit better in a fast league or maybe even with the Sens. That said, he really hasn't shown much in his time with the team and could very well be washed up by the time the Sens want to contend again. He would be a traditional deadline pickup next year as his contract expires and I think it would be wise for the Sens to trade him for whatever they can get, much like Pageau and Smith.

The second player to cover is Mark Borowiecki. Boro is a real enigma as most fans probably don't know what to think about him. On the one hand, I wrote an article about him last year where I made what at the time was the very uncontroversial claim that he was perhaps the most beloved player on the team thanks to being born in Ottawa and his toothless grin, among other things. But, as anyone who even vaguely follows the Sens (or the NHL for that matter) knows, a lot has happened in Ottawa in the past 12 months. When he appeared in the now infamous Eugene Melnyk Variety Hour, many fans felt betrayed that he would prop up such a hated figure. His struggles on the ice despite copious amounts of playing time and an 'A' on his shirt have made many fans frustrated to the point that he has fallen to one of the most disliked players on the team. The problem is, as long as we aren't living in the fantasy world proposed above, he will likely stay until Wolanin or another prospect makes him completely obsolete, which, given how the two have been playing, may be a distinct possibility in the not-so-distant future.

Craig Anderson has been great this season. The season before he was not. The season before that, he was great! Anderson is an inconsistent player, but one that fans and players alike seem to love. He's getting old and is definitely not the same player he was in his first half-decade with the team, but he has one year left on his contract after this and at that point I'd imagine he'd either retire or try to go for one last hurrah if any team will sign him. Hopefully by that point Gustavsson will be ready to take the starter's job full-time and he can get a smooth transition in nets.

Before we finish, I should probably address a few of the missing players from either list. Clarke MacArthur and Marian Gaborik seem destined to remain of LTIR, with the latter possibly getting a few sporadic appearances here and there, these players are essentially done with the team and most likely playing hockey in general. Bobby Ryan is the other player missing and that's because he will likely just keep doing what he's doing. He will sometimes play at a solid second line level and will sometimes play like a bottom-6 forward. He is overpaid and may be traded in a salary dump, potentially with one of the team's better players soon. I wouldn't throw him in with a high-end potential rental like Dzingel of Duchene (or, god forbid, Stone) but maybe instead of going for a mid-round pick with Pageau, Smith, or Boedker, instead they dump part of Ryan's contract. The exact details probably wouldn't be so simple but it's a start.

So there, we've covered everyone on the Sens, in the system, and a few potential additions. There is absolutely no reason to continue. What? Do we have to? Oh boy, here we go.

The 'This Isn't Even Respecting the Format but This is Such a Mess We Need To Do an Entire Section on Cody Ceci' Team

Hey Sens fans, pull up a chair, we need to talk about Cody Ceci. There is one very simple bit of information that is necessary when talking about him: He is bad at hockey. Yes, I could have put him in with the Quad-A guys, or even with Pageau and Smith if I was feeling generous. But he really needs his own section, I know that plenty of members of the Sens front office are avid reader of this blog so settle in Pierre, this is gonna blow your mind. He really isn't good, did I say that? He is near the bottom of stats like CF% and xGF% while still playing big minutes and being viewed as a shutdown guy for some reason. I could give you one of the statistical analyses you've surely seen to describe that but I'm getting all my information from Corsica and you can just see for yourself here (or maybe not, Corsica has gone dark since I wrote this, it may come back, maybe not. The point is, he is not good). No, instead I'm going to talk about how Cody Ceci is just, plain, not good.

Remember when Cody Ceci was drafted? Everyone was happy! The Sens had drafted a player who grew up and played his junior hockey in Ottawa. Not only was he a local boy, but he was also coming off a 17 goal season and helped a star-studded 67s team with the likes of Sean Monahan, Tyler Toffoli, and Petr Mrazek, to a semi-finals appearance. His 60 points that season were good for second among OHL defensemen, behind only Dougie Hamilton, who tallied a remarkable 72 points from the backend. Yet now Cody Ceci is known as a shutdown guy? In his rookie season, Ceci had 3 goals in 49 games. After a bit of a sophomore slump, Ceci exploded in 2015-16 with 10 goals, it seemed like the Sens had found their man to play on the second pair behind Karlsson and put up big numbers. But then the numbers just dried up, with a combined 7 goals in the past two seasons. While he does have 4 goals already this season, the underlying numbers suggest that he is merely the product of high ice-time and just plain ol' dumb luck. So, naturally, unable to fathom that such a promising prospect would be a bust (which isn't so bad, considering other players drafted 15th overall recently include the likes of Zach Senyshyn, Derek Forbort and Peter Holland... but also Dylan Larkin and Erik Karlsson), the narrative was created that Ceci had developed into a "shutdown defensemen". The cynic in me says that this was Dorion covering his ass from his scouting days, but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt (I guess) and say that he is just wrong.

Either way, the Sens will need to make a decision on Ceci one way or another sooner than later. Chris Steveson of The Athletic seems to think that the arbitration hearing has fractured the relationship and he'll be gone by the deadline, while others seem to think that he'll be handed a blank check before July 1. I don't know which will happen or if it'll be something in between, but for the sake of the organization, Cody Ceci should not be on this team come training camp.

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So there you have it! I realize that I didn't finish with one final team but that's because I honestly can't do much more than guesswork here. The most likely result will probably be similar to the one where everything goes right and we acquire some more talent, but those additions were mere speculation. Also, I don't see Duchene sticking around on this team and think that if the Sens can get anything comparable to what Colorado did for him they should trade him yesterday as he's approaching the age where things can start to slow down quickly, if not outright fall apart. And yes, not to be a downer, but not all the prospects will develop to their full potential. Wolanin is looking great in Belleville but he's already 23 so the clock is ticking on his development. Players like Balcers and Formenton just haven't gotten enough solid looks to comfortably predict that they will be anything notable and while I do think they'll be valuable contributors in the not-so-distant future, it's really hard to say for certain. As we know all too well in Ottawa, goaltending is voodoo so who knows if Gustavsson and/or Hogberg will turn out as expected or not. Maybe Hollett is the goalie of the future? And finally, if Duchene or anyone else if moved, some prospects and/or picks (on top of the ones we already have) will likely be added to the system.

Predicting the future is a fool's game, and while I certainly played the fool for most of this article, I am not crazy enough to adamantly state anything for certain. For proof, you need only to look at what people were saying at the start of last season.