Senators Trade Deadline Review

The biggest day of the Sens rebuild is done.

That might be an overstatement. Given that they have made some big moves and the crucial 2020 draft looms large, but there's no denying that the Sens went into yesterday's trade deadline with a handful of valuable assets that they absolutely needed to cash in. Before we go on with what will inevitably be a brutal slog of borderline unwatchable hockey (feel the excitement!) let's take a look back at the moves the team did (and didn't) make.

The Trades

The Sens made six trades on Monday and the days leading up to the deadline, including one involving a player who immediately signed a long term extension. That said the deadline was quieter than most in recent memory for Sens fans, who have become used to expecting to see unquestionable star players on the block. Some of these trades were major and among the biggest of the day/week, some were basic rental-for-pick swaps, and a surprisingly large amount of them involved Aaron Luchuk. Let's take a look at them all now in chronological order.

Sens trade Dylan DeMelo to the Jets for a 2020 3rd-round pick

DeMelo has become somewhat of a fan favourite since coming over from San Jose in the Karlsson trade. In his first season he and Thomas Chabot were joined at the hip at even strength and both excelled. Under DJ Smith this season DeMelo's spot on the top pairing has been lost to Ron Hainsey and Nikita Zaitsev. While this is likely a bad move given that DeMelo being one of only three Sens regulars with an xGF% over 50 this season while Hainsey and Zaitsev are below that mark, DeMelo was a pending free agent who likely did not fit into the Senators' long-term plans. A 3rd seems slightly below market value however, although the Jets may well miss the playoffs and the pick could turn out to be in the early 70s.

Grade: C

Sens trade Max Veronneau to Toronto for Aaron Luchuk and a conditional 2021 6th-round pick

At the end of last season Veronneau was the team's big college free agent signing. But after playing only 16 games with the team over the past two years, with no goals in four this year, the team decided to reunite with prospect Aaron Luchuk, who has only put up decent numbers in the ECHL this year but is two years younger than Veronneau. The sixth only comes into play if Veronneau ends up playing semi-regularly for the Leafs, which seems unlikely. Luchuk was flipped to Montreal a few days later. No one should care about this trade.

Grade: B-

Sens trade Vladislav Namestnikov to the Avalanche for a 2021 4th-round pick

When the Sens used a 4th rounder in October to acquire Namestnikov the hope seemed to be that he would provide enough value to either be worth re-signing or to bring back more than a 4th later in the year. While Namestnikov was a solid penalty killer and netted 13 goals for the team, his overall performance was more or less as expected and thus Pierre Dorion was only able to get a 4th back. That said, we're just looking at this trade and not the earlier one, so getting market value for a 3rd line winger on an expiring contract is just about as routine as you can get for a rebuilder.

Grade: B+

Sens trade Jean-Gabriel Pageau to the Islanders for a conditional 2020 1st-round pick, a 2020 2nd-round pick, and a conditional 2022 3rd-round pick

While it was no Mark Stone or Matt Duchene blockbuster, the Sens still traded their leading scorer and a player who'd been a fan favourite over the course of his eight years with the team. The Sens did well to get a first rounder, especially one from a team who's barely holding down a wildcard spot in the very strong Metropolitan Division. Adding a second to the haul is no small feat either and the team has been widely applauded for the move. That said... I'm not sure I like this as much as everyone else seems to. Trading Pageau was absolutely the right move and the contract he signed with the Islanders is much too long for my liking given that he'll be 33 when it expires, but it's not hard to think they could have gotten even more. A first and a second is more than fair and I still think the team handily won this trade, but this week saw Barclay Goodrow fetch a first and the same Islanders that acquired Pageau saw Andy Greene as worth a second. On top of that, the Sens' big move last deadline, the Mark Stone trade, saw them acquire Erik Brannstrom in large part to the knowledge that Stone would sign a long-term deal with the Golden Knights afterwards. Pageau is no Mark Stone, but in this case it seems like the Sens weren't able to get anything even though Pageau immediately signed a six-year deal. The Pageau trade was even done in the morning, when the team could've given permission to the Islanders to speak with him about a contract extension before making the trade like they did with Vegas and Mark Stone. All that aside however, this trade is absolutely huge for the Sens rebuild and increases the potential windfall in the coming draft.

Grade: A

Sens acquire Matthew Peca from Montreal for Aaron Luchuk and a 2020 7th-round pick

The Sens need warm bodies for the last month and a bit and Matthew Peca provides just that. Aaron Luchuk continues to pick up frequent flyer points, something that will come in handy to the budget Senators when they inevitably acquire him again this summer. The Sens have so many picks in the coming draft there was a good chance Pierre Dorion would have forgotten to make this one. This trade is probably the most impactful Aaron Luchuk trade the team made all week.

Grade: B

Sens trade Tyler Ennis to the Oilers for a 2021 5th-round pick

Tyler Ennis was signed this summer to be traded yesterday. His $800,000 cap hit made him an ideal fit for a team near the cap like Edmonton is and his ability to score will come in handy down the stretch. A fifth seems low considering he may score 20 goals this year and is slated to play with Connor McDavid for the time being (now that I think about it, he may score 30) but the trade was done close to the deadline so this was probably all the team was ever going to get.

Grade: C-

The Non-Trades

This trade deadline may very well be defined around the league by the moves that didn't happen. Names like Joe Thornton and Zach Parise seemed to be on their way out but stayed with San Jose and Minnesota respectively. Chris Kreider was probably the biggest name available but he opted to re-sign with the Rangers. For the Sens they held on to two veterans in Ron Hainsey and Craig Anderson. Anderson has been a backbone of this team for nearly a decade now and is probably the best goaltender in franchise history. Talk has even begun about having his number retired by the team. He has more than earned the right to stay if he wants to. If you have a black heart are an objective analyst the fact that he has a high cap hit and a lacklustre past few seasons means he probably wouldn't have fetched much and meant we'd need to call up another rookie goalie until Nilsson recovered from his injury. Ron Hainsey's signing seemed to have been done with an eye to the deadline much like the Ennis one, albeit with a higher cap hit. However, with Mark Borowiecki hurt the rest of the blueline consists of Thomas Chabot, Nikita Zaitsev, Christian Jaros, Andreas Englund, Mike Reilly, and Hubert Labrie (???), so keeping Hainsey seemed necessary.

The Final Verdict

The Sens did what they had to this deadline. They traded away their top asset as well as a few other rentals for some futures. The team looks awful, which is good for securing better lottery odds and enough veterans were kept or added that the kids can make a playoff run in Belleville and stay far away from this mess.

Grade: A-

Stats courtesy of corsicahockey.com

A Way-Too-Early look at Canada's 2021 WJC Roster

The 2020 World Juniors have come and gone. Coming off a disappointing 6th place finish after a quarterfinal loss to Finland in 2019, Canada roared back in a big way winning the tournament and dropping only one game in the process. It was an inspiring effort, the team regrouped after an historic 6-0 trashing at the hands of the Russians and eventually beat them in the gold medal game thanks to the heroics of Akil Thomas. Alexis Lafrenière turned in a legendary performance, winning MVP despite missing nearly 3 full games and cemented his status as the top prospect in the upcoming draft. Joel Hofer took over from Nico Daws after the loss to Russia and stole the show countless times, earning him top goaltender status. Add in great performances by the likes of Connor McMichael, Barrett Hayton, Jamie Drysdale, Liam Foudy, and nearly every player on the team, and this starts to look like a tournament for the ages for Canada.

While many people will be looking backwards, that's not what we'll be doing here. We'll be looking forwards. Not to the upcoming draft, no, that's far too reasonable. We're going to be looking ahead almost a year to Canada's next World Junior roster.

Now, I'm no junior hockey expert, although yesterday I went to a 67's game and knew almost all the players, so maybe I actually am (?), but thanks to eliteprospects.com and Colin Cudmore's consolidated draft rankings I was able to put together a rough guess at the team Canada will send to Alberta in December.

One thing I noticed about my team was how it was a little more reliant on freshly drafted players than most years. Given that the 2019 draft was relatively weak when it came to Canadians and the 2020 draft looks to be both stronger and more Canadian-heavy than its predecessor. Another reason for this is that out of the 10 2020 draft-eligible players on this roster, 5 of them are late 2001 birthdays, meaning that they will actually be 19-years old when the tournament rolls around.

There are also no 2021 projected picks on this list. Part of that reason is that the top two Canadian prospects for that draft Brandt Clarke and Carson Lambos, are both defencemen, a position where even 18-year olds seldom make an appearance for Canada, much less 17-year olds. The other reason is that upcoming draft prospects that make team Canada often do so on the backs of a strong breakout in their draft year, something that is difficult to predict for any individual player with much certainty.

With all that in mind, let's take a way too early look at the 2021 World Juniors.

Forwards

Connor McMichael (London-OHL) - Quinton Byfield (Sudbury-OHL) - Dylan Cozens (Lethbridge-WHL)

Jakob Pelletier (Moncton-QMJHL) - Peyton Krebs (Winnipeg-WHL) - Dawson Mercer (Chicoutimi-QMJHL)

Samuel Poulin (Sherbrooke-QMJHL) - Alex Newhook (Boston College-NCAA) - Philip Tomasino (Oshawa- OHL)

Connor Zary (Kamloops-WHL) - Cole Perfetti (Saginaw-OHL) - Jack Quinn (Ottawa-OHL)

Alex Beaucage (Rouyn-Noranda-QMJHL)

Others: Andrew Campbell, Graeme Clarke, Dylan Holloway, Hendrix Lapierre, Jamieson Rees, Ryan Suzuki, Brayden Tracey

The top line features a trio of returnees who all had different levels of success in 2020 for Canada. McMichael made his way into the top six when Lafrenière was hurt and held onto it when the tournament MVP returned in the knockout stage. Expect him to play a massive role in Canada's title defence. When McMichael made his way into the top six, he knocked Quinton Byfield down to the fourth line. The presumptive number two pick in the upcoming draft struggled in limited minutes but still has plenty of upside. As Gord Miller and Ray Ferraro often speculated, he could potentially follow Lafrenière's path and dominate the tournament in his second go at it, provided he's not already an NHL regular deemed too valuable to be loaned for the tournament. Dylan Cozens rounds out the top-line. Cozens, like McMichael, had a very strong tournament for Canada and seems poised to jump into an even bigger role next year. While I would expect him to be in the NHL next year, he could follow the Barrett Hayton path and be loaned by Buffalo in order to shine on a big stage, perhaps even as captain.

Dawson Mercer is the only other returnee up front. Like Byfield, Mercer did not get much playing time in the tournament but as a late 2001 birthday he'll be among the 19-year olds for Canada expected to contribute big in 2021. Peyton Krebs was one of the last cuts from the 2020 roster and looks like he could be a solid all-around pivot on the 2nd line next year. Pelletier, Poulin, Newhook, and Tomasino all are 2019 first round picks who should all be able to consistently contribute throughout the tournament next season. On the fourth line I went with a trio of projected 2020 first round picks, led by Cole Perfetti. All three have been putting the puck in the net at high rates in their draft season and could provide Canada with unparalleled scoring depth. For the 13th forward, I went a little off the board with Alex Beaucage, who has been a force for Rouyn-Noranda the past two seasons and was a key piece to their Memorial Cup victory in his draft year.

Defenders

Bowen Byram (Vancouver-WHL) - Jamie Drysdale (Erie-OHL)

Thomas Harley (Mississauga-OHL) - Justin Barron (Halifax-QMJHL)

Braden Schneider (Brandon-WHL) - Kaedan Korczak (Kelowna-WHL)

Kaiden Guhle (Prince Albert-WHL)

Others: Lukas Cormier, Jérémie Poirier, Matthew Robertson, Jordan Spence, Michael Vukojevic


The top pair is made up of two returnees who played major roles in 2020 in Bowen Byram and Jamie Drysdale. Both are dynamic with the puck with Byram having the added bonus of being a solid defender. If one or both of them are in the NHL next season though, the team could suffer a serious blow as the rest of the corps is very inexperienced. Out of the other five defencemen, only Thomas Harley and Kaedan Korczak has been drafted. Harley fits the Byram mold as an offensively gifted player who can also defend and should be an anchor on the second pair who could move up to the top pairing if Byram is indeed in Colorado next season. The other three are all players who are are all ranked highly for the 2020 draft. Barron and Schneider are both late 2001 birthdays who should be able to fit into a tournament often dominated by 19-year olds. While Guhle may be a bit of an unexpected pick here, his offensive abilities and size are tough things to pass up so he gets the 7th slot.

One thing of note is that Drysdale and Barron are the only two right handed shots on the blueline. That said, Canada went into the 2020 tournament with a top pairing of Ty Smith and Jared McIsaac, both lefties, so it does not seem like having defenders play on their natural side is an absolute must for this team. That said, if they do want to balance out the sides, Jordan Spence could easily slot into a top six role on this team.

Goalies

Cole Brady (Fargo-USHL)

Dylan Garand (Kamloops-WHL)

Trent Miner (Vancouver-WHL)

Others: Brett Brochu, Antoine Coulombe, Carter Gylander


Much like in 2020, Canada will likely head into the next World Juniors without a clear number one goalie. Cole Brady has been solid in the USHL the past two seasons and was the top Canadian goalie eligible for the 2021 World Juniors taken in the 2019 draft, albeit in the fifth round. Dylan Garand and Trent Miner have been among the top goalies in the WHL this season, the former in his draft year, so they both currently get the nod to back up Brady. While these goalies may be unheralded, the same can be said of the 2020 goalies. Nico Daws came out of nowhere this season to claim the starting job and when he faltered, 2018 4th round pick Joel Hofer came in and went on to be the top goaltender in the tournament. Canada's best bet will likely be to go with the three netminders having the best seasons and see who comes out on top in camp, the pre-tournament, and the group stage. Given Canada's relatively easy group of Finland, Switzerland, Slovakia, and Germany, the team should have ample opportunity to evaluate who should get the number on job.

Senators Season Preview Part 2.5 - Trades

This post is going to be a bit different than the first two parts of the season preview. Last time, I mentioned how Craig Anderson and Jean-Gabriel Pageau could be traded before opening day, but such a move would be complicated by the cap floor. Originally, the plan was to go off on a tangent about trade options within the piece, but the numerous factors involved convinced me that it was worthy of its own piece.

Assuming once again that Colin White signs for around $4 million annually, and no other NHL free agents are signed, then Ottawa's projected cap hit would sit around $66 million, $3.5 million above the floor. This means that any trade involving Anderson would need to involve a player coming back or salary retained. On a budget team, paying a player for nothing doesn't seem to be in the cards, unless absolutely necessary like in the Phaneuf trade, so in all likelihood any trade for Anderson would see an NHL player coming back. While Pageau could be traded away and the team would stay below the floor, taking on a contract in return would allow for more financial flexibility as well as the possibility of receiving a better asset in return, depending on how badly a team wants out from under the contract.

With that in mind, let's take a look at a few factors that the team will be looking for in any possible returns for either player.

Higher Cap Hit than Salary

When trying to reach the floor on a budget, few things are more valuable than a player who has already received their salaries for the high paying years bringing up the average annual value of the contract, thus having a higher cap hit than salary. The recently acquired Artem Anisimov earned $5.75 million in the first year of his deal and $5 million in the second and third years. Chicago already paid half of the $4 million he's owed this year in the form of a signing bonus, so the $2 million he's still owed this year and the $3 million next year both come well below his $4.55 million cap hit. Nikita Zaitsev is in a similar situation. 

By my count, there are currently 26 players in the league with a cap hit at least $1 million higher than their salaries that the Sens could target in a trade. That said, some of them are slated to earn raises in the coming years and eventually exceed their cap hits in the future, that would mean Nick Schmaltz, Timo Meier, Jakob Chychrun, Christian Dvorak, Michael Matheson, and Mats Zuccarello do not fit this description, although I can't imagine any of them would even have been in play to begin with.  That still leads us with 21 players to look at through this process of elimination though, so there's plenty of options.

No NTCs

The Senators have been a disaster on and off the ice the past couple of seasons, meaning that very few players would be likely to waive their no-trade clauses to join the team or that Ottawa is included on their no-trade lists. That said, Nikita Zaitsev did waive his no-trade clause as he wanted out of Toronto, so we'll still look at some players who may be willing to waive their clauses to come to Ottawa. Furthermore, we will make an exception for players with career-ending injuries as they won't care who's paying their salaries, but we will touch on them later. Patrice Bergeron, Duncan Keith, Henrik Lundqvist, Jeff Petry, Michael Frolik, Braden Holtby, Phil Kessel, Loui Eriksson, and Corey Crawford all fall out of contention in this category, but there is one player that I think could still waive. David Backes was often relegated to the fourth line or even the press box for much of Boston's season and subsequent Cup final run, so there might be a willingness for him to look for a fresh start somewhere else, even if that somewhere is Ottawa. Even with Backes not coming off the board, we're now down to only eleven players who fit the mold, and we're only about halfway through...

No Injured Players

For most teams near the cap floor, finding a player with a career-ending injury and taking on their contract is a great way to get assets and/or reach the floor. That said, most of the players in that category have been on that list long enough that the team clearly is in no rush to move the player. Moreover, this would involve paying the player for nothing, something that I can't imagine Eugene Melnyk would be a fan of, and even if he was he could quite simply retain some of Anderson/Pageau's salary. Because of this, Henrik Zetterberg, Marian Hossa, Johan Franzen, David Clarkson, Nathan Horton, and Ryan Callahan are all off the board, leaving us with only five candidates left.

Little value to their teams

An issue with taking on a bad contract is just that: the contract is bad. A player that still provides their team with some value, even if they don't live up to the deal, aren't the types of players that a team will just throw into a deal for nothing, which should be the Sens approach if they want to still get a decent future return in a trade. Montreal captain Shea Weber and reigning Conn Smythe winner Ryan O'Reilly are both well-above the tier of salary dump players, which leaves us with just three players remaining. This category also deals with the long-term contract issue that I was planning to raise next, as none of the remaining players have contracts that interfere with Melnyk's infamous "run of unparalleled success." It also deals with positional needs, as there are only forwards left.

So who does that leave?

As discussed above, David Backes could be an option if he does indeed decide to waive his no-trade clause, the other two options are Jeff Carter of the Los Angeles Kings, and Derek Stepan of the Arizona Coyotes. Los Angeles does not seem like a great option for either Anderson or Pageau, as they are in about the same stage of a rebuild as the Sens, but Carter could be acquired in a separate trade after one of them is dealt. Stepan does actually provide some value for Arizona, but they could trade him if they're looking to create some cap space to make a run, given they've shown signs of improvement last season, just narrowly missing the playoffs. Boston has cap space, but they also have two goalies they trust in Tuukka Rask and Jaroslav Halak, so if Backes were to come to Ottawa it would likely be in a Pageau trade.

Of course, all this is moot if the Sens don't get a trade they like. While both are free agents at the end of the season, the Sens have gotten almost all they could've out of Anderson and aren't surrendering much value at all if they let him walk after this season. Pageau, on the other hand, is still just 26 and could receive an extension to provide depth and leadership for the next era of the team. But if one or both of them are traded, these are the factors that will impact the return as well as some of the players who I think would be a fit.

Senators Season Preview Part 2 - Opening Night

Last time we took a look at who we should be expecting to see open camp with the team in September. If you missed that one, or want a refresher, you can find it here. Today, the focus will shift to what will happen when the calendar flips to October and the team takes the ice for the regular season. Last time players were divided into new faces and old faces, as well as by their experience. Today, they'll be broken down into five categories based on their likelihood of making the roster on October 2, when the team opens the season in Toronto.

Sure Things (16)

At forward, this group consists of the team's top offensive weapons like Brady Tkachuk, Colin White, Anthony Duclair, Bobby Ryan, and Chris Tierney. It also includes veterans presences with Mikkel Boedker, as well as recently acquired players Tyler Ennis, Connor Brown, and Artem Anisimov. True, players like Boedker and Anisimov may not move the needle much for a team, but given the Sens position and, sigh, the cap hit, it would make no sense whatsoever to leave them out of the lineup come opening night. Defenders in this category are Thomas Chabot, Dylan DeMelo, Christian Wolanin, Ron Hainsey, Nikita Zaitsev, and Mark Borowiecki. Even though Zaitsev and Borowiecki are likely destined for the 3rd pairing at best, they're included here for much of the same reasons as Anisimov: veteran presences who will help the team reach the cap floor. Another thing Zaitsev has going for him is the assets the Sens surrendered to acquire him. While it was more of a cap dump than a hockey trade, but even so, giving up on a player after making him the centrepiece of your marquee off-season trade would be even beyond the usual levels of calamity that we've come to expect from the hockey ops department. In goal, Anders Nilsson earned himself a nice new contract with his stellar play since being acquired from Vancouver in January so it's safe to assume he's more or less locked into the starters role for the upcoming season.

Sure Things But... (2)

If Jean-Gabriel Pageau and/or Craig Anderson are on the roster come opening night, they'll be in the lineup. However, they have both been rumoured to be on the market for over a year now so a trade could happen at any time. The details of a trade for one or both of them would be complicated by the salary floor, so much so that their status warrants its own piece, check back for that soon. For now, though, let's assume they're on the team.

On the Bubble (16)

With our assumption that Pageau and Anderson will still be on the team, our opening night roster is down to just 5 available spots. That may typically make for a lousy training camp, but in this case there are over a dozen players with a legitimate claim to one of those spots. Only 10 forwards have been penciled into the lineup already, which leaves room for two thirds of a forward line as well as some scratches. Out of those forwards, Drake Batherson is as close as a sure thing as you can get and still wind up here, as he was utterly dominant in Belleville last season and despite some substantial troubles when called-up,  had stretches where he definitely looked like he belonged in the NHL. Rudolfs Balcers is another player who'll hope to build off of an impressive 2018-19 season, while Logan Brown, Filip Chlapik, Vitali Abramov, and Alex Formenton will try and stick around for a bit longer than last time. The most interesting players in my opinion are those who I labeled as "tweeners" in yesterday's post. Jack Rodewald, Nick Paul, and Max Veronneau are 25, 24, and 23 respectively and in today's NHL that's not nearly as young as it may seem. Paul and Rodewald both project to be not much more than NHL depth but they'll probably need to prove it this year or risk being shipped out for younger, cheaper options with more upside. Max Veronneau probably gets a bit of a longer leash as he's the youngest of the trio and just signed at the end of last season and while I agree that he does have the most potential, he'll need to prove that he can play at the highest level sooner than later. Finally, veteran Jordan Szwarz captained the Providence Bruins last season, scoring 23 goals in 68 games. He's nothing special, but if the team opts to let the youngsters play big minutes in Belleville instead of sitting in the press box, Szwarz would be a natural choice to fill the role of 23rd man. On defense there's one spot available, assuming the team goes with 14 forwards. That would come down to Erik Brannstrom, Christian Jaros, Cody Goloubef, and Maxime Lajoie. Out of those four, Jaros played the most games with Ottawa last season so the spot is probably his to lose. That said, Brannstrom has the most potential to force himself onto the team with his play and has succeeded at every level so far. If neither of them have a strong camp and the team decides they could use more seasoning, Cody Goloubef wouldn't be a terrible choice as the 7th defender or the team could take another look at Max Lajoie. Under the assumption that Anderson stays with the team, the two goalie positions are set, but if he doesn't the spot will most likely come down to a battle between Mike Condon and Marcus Hogberg. The edge would probably go to Hogberg as he's already shown what he can do at the AHL level and could be given a make-or-break opportunity to clarify the future of the Sens' goalie situation. We'll revisit this battle when we look at the possible scenarios of an Anderson trade.

Maybe Later (13)

These players have almost no chance of making the team out of camp. However, almost all of them could/will have a future with the team as teams rarely invite players to camp who they know will never play for them. Note that I said they have ALMOST no chance of making the team. If I had done this list last year, its quite possible that Maxime Lajoie would've been here and he ended up making the team out of camp and even got off to a hot start before eventually fizzling out. At forward, recently acquired Leafs Michael Carcone and Morgan Klimchuk top the list who, along with players like Josh Norris and Jonathan Davidsson, should provide solid upper-tier depth for Belleville this season and are the most likely of this category to see some time in Ottawa next season. Like Norris, Johnny Gruden will be attending his first NHL training camp fresh off signing his entry-level deal, but probably won't come as close to making the team this year. The forwards here are Parker Kelly, Jean-Christophe Beaudin and Andrew Sturtz. The defence is headlined by Andreas Englund who may actually be the most NHL-ready of the group but there are less d-spots to go around so he'll hope for a strong camp as well as a miracle to get any shot. Yesterday I said that I thought Lassi Thomson was more NHL ready than some people might think but he falls victim to the lack of defense spots as well, though even with less traffic in front of him he probably wouldn't even be optimistically ready for this season. Nick Ebert is probably the least likely player here ever to wear a Sens uniform here, but he could provide some nice depth. In net, Joey Daccord and Filip Gustavsson both saw time with Ottawa last season and both very well could again this year. But with 4 healthy goalies ahead of them on the depth chart, their focus right now will be on making it to Belleville to start the season.

Others (2)

Marian Gaborik and Clarke MacArthur give us the opportunity to be sad again! However, yesterday I said that this could've been the 'LTIR' category, that is untrue. Both players are in fact only on the IR. This is critical as their contracts will help the team reach the cap floor this season. See? Much less sad!

In conclusion

So there you have it, my best guess at what the team will look like come opening night (courtesy of CapFriendly). Batherson, Formenton, Brown, and Veronneau got the forward spots and Jaros is the 7th defenceman. The tightest decisions were between Brown/Balcers and Jaros/Goloubef. I eventually went with Brown simply because I think he's slightly better than Balcers, although I could be convinced otherwise, and with Jaros because I think he's better and that he looked like he could play at the NHL level last season, so he probably wouldn't benefit much from another stint in Belleville, although the option will always be there.

So, how good is this team? We assumed they'd be bad, but are they? Using Sean Tierney's awesome lineup creator tool this lineup would project to put up 85 points. Not great but miles better than the 64 that saw them come dead last in 2018-19. With some adjustments made to the line combinations, that number can get up to the low 90s. Does this seem reasonable? Probably not as these are projections use general trends and apply them without factoring in who the team will play this season (4 games against the Lightning and Bruins aren't your average inter-divisional game), but the fact that Tierney uses Evolving Hockey's very reputable model at least allows for some optimism for the future.

Does any of this matter until Eugene Melnyk is gone? Would it be nice to bottom out in a year with one of the best drafts in recent memory instead of the one where we don't even have our own first round pick? Those are questions for another day!

Senators Summer Season Preview Part 1 - Training Camp

It's late July. The draft has passed, trades have been made, and free agency is mostly done (someone please tell Jake Gardiner that last one). We are about as far from hockey season as we can possibly be. So let's talk some hockey. Specifically, let's talk about the Ottawa Senators. They're almost certainly going to be bad this year. They've finished last and second last the past two seasons and that was with the likes of Erik Karlsson, Mark Stone, Matt Duchene, Ryan Dzingel, and Mike Hoffman lending a hand. Without any of these pieces, the Sens look like they'll be, to use the technical term, a dumpster fire.

But this blog is not a space to be down on ourselves, and, if you just ignore the past ~2 years of my writing, you'll know that I'm nothing if not an optimist when it comes to this stuff. Training camp is just around the corner in a way I guess so with that in mind, let's reacquaint ourselves with our beloved tolerated Ottawa Senators!

Who's Gone?

If you're a Sens fan who has not spent 2019 living under a rock you're probably well aware of the departures of Mark Stone, Matt Duchene, and Ryan Dzingel, as well as more recent departures such as Cody Ceci, Ben Harpur, and (just yesterday) Zack Smith. But those are far from the only faces that will not be making a return appearance to training camp. In fact, out of the 57 players to open camp with the team last season, 28 are no longer with the organization. The full list is below:

Jordan Hollett (G)

Mike McKenna (G)

Jonathan Aspirot (D)
Julius Bergman (D)
Erik Burgdoerfer (D)
Cody Ceci (D)
Macoy Erkamps (D)
Ben Harpur (D)
Erik Karlsson (D)*
Stuart Percy (D)
Patrick Sieloff (D)
Chris Wideman (D)
Chase Balisy (F)
Matt Duchene (F)
Ryan Dzingel (F)
Gabriel Gagné (F)
Joe Labate (F)
Boston Leier (F)
Gregor MacLeod (F)
Max McCormick (F)
Jim O'Brien (F)
Magnus Paajarvi (F)
Francis Perron (F)*
Tom Pyatt (F)
Ben Sexton (F)
Jack Skille (F)
Zack Smith (F)
Adam Tambellini (F)

*Karlsson and Perron were traded just days after camp broke and for all intents and purposes were not part of the 2018-19 Senators season. This means the players acquired in the trade (Chris Tierney, Dylan DeMelo, Josh Norris, and Rudolfs Balcers) are not included in the start of camp figures listed above, though all of them except Norris did attend.

That's some significant turnover, albeit some of those invitees, like Skille and Percy, were veterans trying to get another crack and some of them like, Leier and Tambellini, were quasi-prospects picked up in hopes of finding a diamond in the rough. That being said, just under half of the players who attended day one of training camp are already gone and don't be surprised if that number gets over 50% in two months time when camp officially gets underway.

So those are the players who will in all likelihood not be suiting up for the team in any capacity this season, but with such a large number of players gone, there'll have to be a host of new faces taking their places, let's look at some of the players who will/might make their first appearance at a Senators training camp in September.

New Faces

There are 4 categories that I think players can fit into coming into camp, Veteran, Prospects, Tweeners, and Others. I have sorted the new arrivals into said categories below.

Veterans (11)

This is the group of players that will either be vying for an NHL spot, or should comfortably make the roster, most of them don't provide much upside in terms of development but that's not always the case. A player like the recently acquired Artem Anisimov looks like he'll be little more than a warm body who'll put up 30-40 points while helping the team reach the cap floor, whereas Chris Tierney and Dylan DeMelo, who while technical entering their second training camp with the team were not here on day 1 last season, are younger and provide a nice mix of experience and potential. Other players in the Anisimov category include, well, basically the 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs with Tyler Ennis, Ron Hainsey, and Nikita Zaitsev as well as Cody Coloubef, Jordan Szwarz, and presumptive starting goaltender Anders Nilsson. Another former Leaf, Connor Brown, as well as Anthony Duclair, are the other members of the Tierney-DeMelo subcategory.

Prospects (9)

This is by far the most important category for a rebuilding team and they certainly have added a lot of new prospects this past season. These prospects have considerable range in potential as well as current ability, but for now we're just going to keep them all in one category, divided by position. At forward, the final piece of the Erik Karlsson trade, Josh Norris, will likely make his first appearance at camp after raising a few eyebrows after not returning to Michigan given that he missed about half of his last season due to injury. He'll be joined by other players acquired in trades over the past year: Michael Carcone, Vitali Abramov, Jonathan Davidsson, and Jean-Christophe Beaudin, as well as Johnny Gruden, who was drafted by the team in 2018 and has since signed an entry-level deal. On defense, there are only two new prospects from last year but they're big ones: Erik Brannstrom, who looks like he will be part of a potentially formidable top-4, and Lassi Thomson, who may not have been the most obvious or safest choice with the team's first selection in this year's draft, but offers some intriguing upside and could be closer to NHL ready than many think, but that's getting ahead of ourselves. Following the trend of quality-not-quantity, Joey Daccord is the only new goalie prospect and will look to build off of his breakout season with Arizona in the NCAA. If the team wants to get an up-close look at some more prospects, they still have plenty of unsigned players such as Markus Nurmi and Viktor Lodin, however by this time in the off-season most unsigned players will presumably stay where they are for the following season.

Tweeners (4)

This is a category that I'm going to use for the players who don't have much in the way of NHL experience but seem too old to really be considered prospects. Some of them may still have some upside, but for most of them, this is who they are and will need to show that they can at least look like a passable NHLer or they will probably find themselves in the "who's gone" category this time next year. At forward, this category includes Jack Rodewald and yet another former Maple Leaf in Morgan Klimchuk. My money would be on Rodewald if I had to bet on which one is most worth keeping an eye on, but I do believe Klimchuk is worth watching too. Even Max Veronneau, who was just signed at the end of last season, is already in this category given that he'll be 24 in December. On defense, the lone member is Nick Ebert, who may well have been better suited in the veterans category, but with no NHL games played and still just 25 years old, I'm not confident he's at that point quite yet, but I'd certainly imagine he's only here for AHL depth. There are no new goalies in this category.

Others (0)

There are no new players in this category

That gives us 24 of the 28 spaces to fill. The team could decide to add another veteran/tweener or two to compete for a spot and/or provide some AHL depth, or they may acquire a few more prospects in a trade, but this seems like it is more or less a comprehensive list of the new players who'll open camp with the team this September.

Old Faces

This section will be a lot less expansive, given that most fans are probably familiar with these players for the most part, but it would be wrong to leave them out so here we go.

Veterans (11)

At forward, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Mikkel Boedker, and Bobby Ryan are the only players to fit the traditional "veteran" mold, but on a team as young as the Senators, I'm willing to include Brady Tkachuk and Colin White, both of whom spent all of last season with the team and will likely have to be leaders this coming season. Mark Borowiecki would be the only returning traditional vet on the blueline but players like Thomas Chabot, Christian Wolanin, and Christian Jaros will likely play that role too. In goal, Craig Anderson will likely battle with Nilsson for playing time while Mike Condon will battle with arena security insisting that he really does play for the team and to let him get his stuff on for practice.

Prospects (8)

The new Senators rookies will be interesting to watch but the vast majority of the core prospects are returning players. Up front there's Logan Brown, Filip Chlapik, Rudolfs Balcers, Alex Formenton, Drake Batherson, and Parker Kelly, almost all of whom should reasonably have their sights set on making the team out of camp this year (sorry Parker). On defense, Max Lajoie will try and play his way back into the picture while goaltender Filip Gustavsson will try and find the form that was expected of him when the hockey world was ready to anoint him the next great Swedish net-minder.

Tweeners (4)

If you thought patience was running out with the new tweeners, imagine the pressure that will be on these guys to prove to the organization that they were right to hold onto them for so long. At forward there's the most famous example in Nick Paul as well as Andrew Sturtz. Defenceman Andreas Englund will probably never be the player that he looked like he could've been when he was drafted, but there's still time to prove that he could be a valuable asset to the rebuild, but not much. In nets Marcus Hogberg would presumably be the #2 goalie if Anderson is shipped out but barring that he'll need to show signs of improvement over last year to force the team to consider keeping him around, if only in a backup position.

Others (2)

This could've just been entitled "LTIR" as it includes Marian Gaborik and Clarke MacArthur. See? Now we're all sad! Hockey is fun!

In conclusion...

These two lists are essentially what the Sens will look like in training camp. Next time we'll look at who might make it out of camp and what it will all mean for the season.

What to do with Anthony Duclair?

The Sens suck. This is not a controversial statement. The team has been at the bottom of the standings for most of the season and have just traded their three top scorers. In the five games since they began benching the trio of Mark Stone, Matt Duchene and Ryan Dzingel, the Sens have been shutout twice and only scored 2 goals twice and in one of those games they surrendered a touchdown to the Washington Capitals. Their only close games was a tonight's loss to the Oilers as well as a heartbreaking 2-1 loss to the Calgary Flames on trade deadline eve. Needless to say, they have gone 0-5.

So yes, the Ottawa Senators are bad, and without their first round pick, the next semblance of hope for Sens fans is the 2019-20 season, and even that is debatable. So naturally its time to look ahead and figure out what that team will look like. But for the final month and a half of the season one of the most interesting players to watch will be Anthony Duclair.

As part of the Ryan Dzingel trade, Duclair was acquired, along with the likes of Oscar Lindberg and Brian Gibbons in other trades, to help the Senators field a competitive lineup (ie players who know how to tie their own skates) while Belleville's young core can be part of a playoff push. While Lindberg and Gibbons are 27 and 31 respectively, Duclair will only be 24-years old when the puck drops on the next NHL season. The former QMJHL standout has yet to truly live up to his potential, but has looked good in his four games for Ottawa, including scoring a goal against Washington. So now the question is, what to do with Anthony Duclair?

Not this year of course, this year he likely plays on the top 6 for the rest of the season, but what about next year, when presumably a handful of Belleville's top players will get regular shot with the big club? There's probably no incentive to keep them down for another run, and with Ottawa actually owning their first pick and Alexis Lafrenière waiting for the lucky loser, fielding a quality team may actually be less of a priority than this season (scary thought). Mix in the rumours of Belleville coach Troy Mann possibly being promoted and I find it hard to believe as many middling veterans will be given significant minutes next season.

Below is a possible roster next year, if Ottawa decides to let Duclair walk in free agency.

While names like Cody Ceci, Mikkel Boedker, Bobby Ryan and Craig Anderson have all been thrown around in trade rumours I do not see many if any at all being moved in the offseason. As of now, none of them seem to have significant trade value so they may be more valuable in Ottawa's quest to reach the cap floor. Cody Ceci may still have some value and while I personally would like to see the Sens cut their losses with him management has seemed to balk at every chance they've had to move him. Other than Bobby Ryan, all of these players will be in the last year of their contracts so its not like they will hurt the team in the long run. I kept Nilsson in goal but that doesn't really matter as the team will carry two goalies no matter what happens.

So, with this lineup staring Melnyk and co. in the face, do they hold onto Duclair? I would instead ask, how could they not? Out of all the players in the organization not on the roster, only Alex Formenton seems like he might be ready for the NHL next year. Erik Brannstrom might be, but one would have to imagine that that would come at the cost of either Harpur or Lajoie. Players like Jack Rodewald, Darren Archibald, Magnus Paajarvi, Oscar Lindberg and Brian Gibbons could be retained as well, but are any of them better than Duclair? Players like Abramov, Brown and Chlapik all seem like they could fill a role but I'm not convinced that all of them would need to be on the opening night roster. Finally, if Ottawa reverses its defense-heavy approach under a (presumably) new head coach, that would open up yet another forward spot that would have to be filled.

So we've established that another forward (or two, or three, or twelve) should be added to this roster, the question now is whether there would be better options than Anthony Duclair. There are certainly better players on the market, but signing a star for the supposedly upcoming run of unparalleled success does not make sense for this team. First of all, if they were interested in having an established star they would've just kept Mark Stone (or Erik Karlsson, or Matt Duchene, or Mike Hoffman, or Jason Spezza, or Daniel Alfredsson, or). Second, Alexis Lafrenière is one of the few glimmers of hope that fans will have during the next season and anything that chips away at that hope would be foolish move for an organization already skating on thin ice. Oh also no one in their right mind is going to commit their prime years to this team. Right, moving on. So that leaves two options: take a flyer on a younger player with potential, or sign a veteran for leadership.

Without wading too far into the debate over the impacts of leadership, I want to shoot down that option before it begins. This team projects to have Zack Smith, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Mark Borowiecki, Craig Anderson, Bobby Ryan and Mikkel Boedker; that seems like enough veterans, especially in a league where youth and speed has taken over. So there it is, the team should sign a player like Anthony Duclair. There, case closed.

Did you catch it? I haven't actually answered my question yet, right. So now, here we go, that was just the preamble, we're really going to answer it this time: What to do with Anthony Duclair? With Columbus, Duclair was often the target of coach John Tortorella's wrath, despite putting up impressive numbers (gee whiz, if only there were some clues to help explain why that might be). He is on pace to put up one of the most productive years of his career, behind only his 20 goal year in 2015-16 with Arizona, despite receiving the fewest minutes per game since his rookie season (again, really wish there was someway we could find a plausible explanation for that). While his 11 goals with the Jackets is slightly higher than his expected goals of 8.74, he shot 11.96%, slightly above league average but slightly below his career average. Mix in that he's only entering his prime and has clicked well early on in his Sens career, there does not seem to be a better option out there that combines age, production and, perhaps most importantly, signability.

So to answer the question posed at the start: they should absolutely sign Anthony Duclair to an extension.

All stats courtesy of Evolving Hockey unless noted otherwise
Salary information courtesy of CapFriendly

What if the NHL was fair?

The Toronto Maple Leafs are in third place in the NHL. When you factor in that they are only two points back of Calgary for second while holding 2 games in hand, it could be argued that they are the best team in hockey outside of Tampa Bay, where the Lightning are looking more and more ridiculous by the day. The Toronto Maple Leafs, as much as it pains me to say it, are one of the best teams in all of hockey and are certainly on the shortlist when it comes to Stanley Cup contenders.

But instead of focusing how good they really are, I want to get out ahead of the inevitable colossal headache we must endure every year: the hockey world losing their collective minds over the playoff format.

The playoffs are where the sentiment of everything just being so darn unfair for poor old Toronto really comes out in full force in recent years as they are inevitably drawn against teams in the mighty Atlantic division. Yes, the same Atlantic division was criticized less than two years ago for being too easy as the Senators waltzed their way through the first two rounds with largely the same roster that would finish 30th overall the following season, but that doesn't fit the narrative so ignore that. The harsh reality of the NHL is that there is a large amount of luck involved. Ottawa caught the Atlantic in a down year while the Leafs are coming into their own as Tampa and Boston assert themselves as perennial powerhouses as well. While it would be interesting to see the reaction if the roles were reversed, seeing Toronto squeak their way through a lesser quarter of the bracket while Ottawa was the team struggling against a pair of giants, that is not the point of this article.

No, this article is going to surrender the the cries of Toronto fans and media alike, we are going to make the NHL fair.

If the second round of the playoffs started today (and there were no upsets in round one, a lofty assumption in today's NHL) Toronto would face Tampa Bay. Now, if we were to abandon the divisional format, Toronto would face the third best team in the conference, that would be the Boston Bruins. Is Tampa Bay better than Boston? Absolutely. But it is important to remember what we are sacrificing. When the NHL created this format to go into place for the 2014 playoffs (as a result of the 2013 realignment brought on by Atlanta's move to Winnipeg, after the Jets had already played 2 seasons in the Southeast division, in true NHL fashion) the intention was to ignite rivalries. While Toronto-Boston is certainly a rivalry, we would've seen it in the first round in the current divisional system anyways while Tampa and Toronto could kickstart what should be a great rivalry in the second round. By having a third Atlantic team advance to round two means we lose a potential great matchup: Washington-Pittsburgh (more on that near the end). But no matter, the NHL must be above all things - especially fun - FAIR.

We could take this a step further, and use the proposed 1-16 format, but I won't do that. Not because it is too extreme, but because it ignores the greatest problem there is: the playoffs themselves. Last week, Twitter user @DTMAboutHeart floated the idea of scrapping the playoffs altogether. The idea was widely ridiculed and the tweet promptly deleted. Now, I am no fan of the idea of getting rid of the playoffs because they are FUN. But when it comes to fairness, if that is what some people so dearly want, it is clear that the playoffs must go. We already have a grueling 82 game season where we often get a pretty clear picture of who the best team in the league is. Ask any fan who the best team has been this season and all but the delusional won't think twice before saying it is Tampa Bay. But ask the very same fans who will win the Cup, and you'll probably hear many say Tampa, but they will have to consider it carefully and you'll certainly inevitably wind up hearing countless variations of "well there's just so many good teams nowadays..."

So we're going eliminate the playoffs, but we're also going to take it a step further, we're going to eliminate divisions, and conferences, and have every team play every other team twice - one home, one away -  just like the English Premier League does which, despite its lack of parity which flies against everything North American fans have come to view as fair, it is fair in the sense that the best team seldom does not win a championship in any given year.

We'll be using the scores from the 2017-18 season as they are, in cases where multiple games are played between the same teams in the same location (for the purpose of this exercise, International Series games will be counted as home games just like any other) the tiebreaker will be which games the days of rest between the two teams is the closest, followed by which game sees the away team having the most total rest. This is because the season is going to be cut from 82 games plus playoffs to a mere 60. This would lead to teams likely playing about one game during the week and one on the weekend in order to stretch the season on for as long as possible and maintain interest. The final tiebreaker will simply be whichever game came first as less injuries as well as general wear and tear will provide the most accurate representation of the quality of the teams.

Finally, we will be using the 3-2-1 point system like the IIHF does. This is because the loser point is stupid. The 3-2-1 system isn't perfect, and moving the goalposts after the season is complete may affect the way games were played, but the 3-2-1 system better rewards the actual quality of play (ROW will also be kept as the tiebreaker in order to discourage shootouts). Of course, I cannot remove puck luck, hot streaks, or any of the oddities of the games themselves from the equation, that will have to remain as part of the sport. So, without further ado, I present to you the "fair" version of the NHL:

Click here to see the whole experiment, along with individual scores.

Right away we see a change, as President's Trophy winners Nashville fall to 4th, due their Western dominance being made less significant. Montreal, for example, finished dead last despite finishing ahead of Ottawa and Buffalo, who both played the exact same opponents (with the exception of themselves), in the real season. Oftentimes these standings are simply the result of the wrong game being struck from the schedule. For example, Edmonton won in Vegas 3-2 in OT on January 13th, but because Vegas was rested and the Oilers were playing on back-to-back nights, the game that was counted was the February 15th contest where both teams had had a day of rest, Vegas won that game 4-1. In this case, the system was intended to help Edmonton but instead hurt them.

Hockey is a game of bounces. Oftentimes, the best team does not win. The playoffs are a crapshoot. These are all true, but as hockey fans we need to accept this. For years, the Washington Capitals had dominated the regular season but could not get past the Penguins in the second round. This created what could be called the best rivalry of this era, and even though Washington fans were made miserable, the passion that arose from those series became a part of the identity of the teams and the sport itself. Maybe someday soon, the Maple Leafs will win the Stanley Cup and the memories of those hard losses to Boston and Tampa Bay will add to the jubilation of fans and players alike. But maybe they won't, in which case, they can still look back at the time where they were oh-so-close and reminisce about the old days, like Ottawa fans do about the mid-2000s, or like Toronto fans themselves would do about 1993 before this team came around.

It's fun to analyze the games and which teams are the best, I had a blast compiling all of the scores for this piece that you're reading right now! But at the end of the day, things are just gonna happen. We're going to watch this great sport and one team will end this season by lifting the Stanley Cup. My scenario had Washington finishing 7th in a "fair" league and few if any foresaw them winning it all as the playoffs began. But none of that matters because it was one hell of a scene to see Alex Ovechkin finally lift the Cup. Hockey is about moments, not absolute fairness, and we need to be better at embracing the inherent randomness of the sport and not call for dramatic changes that would ever so slightly move the needle towards what we have determined to be right.