Senators Season Preview Part 2.5 - Trades

This post is going to be a bit different than the first two parts of the season preview. Last time, I mentioned how Craig Anderson and Jean-Gabriel Pageau could be traded before opening day, but such a move would be complicated by the cap floor. Originally, the plan was to go off on a tangent about trade options within the piece, but the numerous factors involved convinced me that it was worthy of its own piece.

Assuming once again that Colin White signs for around $4 million annually, and no other NHL free agents are signed, then Ottawa's projected cap hit would sit around $66 million, $3.5 million above the floor. This means that any trade involving Anderson would need to involve a player coming back or salary retained. On a budget team, paying a player for nothing doesn't seem to be in the cards, unless absolutely necessary like in the Phaneuf trade, so in all likelihood any trade for Anderson would see an NHL player coming back. While Pageau could be traded away and the team would stay below the floor, taking on a contract in return would allow for more financial flexibility as well as the possibility of receiving a better asset in return, depending on how badly a team wants out from under the contract.

With that in mind, let's take a look at a few factors that the team will be looking for in any possible returns for either player.

Higher Cap Hit than Salary

When trying to reach the floor on a budget, few things are more valuable than a player who has already received their salaries for the high paying years bringing up the average annual value of the contract, thus having a higher cap hit than salary. The recently acquired Artem Anisimov earned $5.75 million in the first year of his deal and $5 million in the second and third years. Chicago already paid half of the $4 million he's owed this year in the form of a signing bonus, so the $2 million he's still owed this year and the $3 million next year both come well below his $4.55 million cap hit. Nikita Zaitsev is in a similar situation. 

By my count, there are currently 26 players in the league with a cap hit at least $1 million higher than their salaries that the Sens could target in a trade. That said, some of them are slated to earn raises in the coming years and eventually exceed their cap hits in the future, that would mean Nick Schmaltz, Timo Meier, Jakob Chychrun, Christian Dvorak, Michael Matheson, and Mats Zuccarello do not fit this description, although I can't imagine any of them would even have been in play to begin with.  That still leads us with 21 players to look at through this process of elimination though, so there's plenty of options.

No NTCs

The Senators have been a disaster on and off the ice the past couple of seasons, meaning that very few players would be likely to waive their no-trade clauses to join the team or that Ottawa is included on their no-trade lists. That said, Nikita Zaitsev did waive his no-trade clause as he wanted out of Toronto, so we'll still look at some players who may be willing to waive their clauses to come to Ottawa. Furthermore, we will make an exception for players with career-ending injuries as they won't care who's paying their salaries, but we will touch on them later. Patrice Bergeron, Duncan Keith, Henrik Lundqvist, Jeff Petry, Michael Frolik, Braden Holtby, Phil Kessel, Loui Eriksson, and Corey Crawford all fall out of contention in this category, but there is one player that I think could still waive. David Backes was often relegated to the fourth line or even the press box for much of Boston's season and subsequent Cup final run, so there might be a willingness for him to look for a fresh start somewhere else, even if that somewhere is Ottawa. Even with Backes not coming off the board, we're now down to only eleven players who fit the mold, and we're only about halfway through...

No Injured Players

For most teams near the cap floor, finding a player with a career-ending injury and taking on their contract is a great way to get assets and/or reach the floor. That said, most of the players in that category have been on that list long enough that the team clearly is in no rush to move the player. Moreover, this would involve paying the player for nothing, something that I can't imagine Eugene Melnyk would be a fan of, and even if he was he could quite simply retain some of Anderson/Pageau's salary. Because of this, Henrik Zetterberg, Marian Hossa, Johan Franzen, David Clarkson, Nathan Horton, and Ryan Callahan are all off the board, leaving us with only five candidates left.

Little value to their teams

An issue with taking on a bad contract is just that: the contract is bad. A player that still provides their team with some value, even if they don't live up to the deal, aren't the types of players that a team will just throw into a deal for nothing, which should be the Sens approach if they want to still get a decent future return in a trade. Montreal captain Shea Weber and reigning Conn Smythe winner Ryan O'Reilly are both well-above the tier of salary dump players, which leaves us with just three players remaining. This category also deals with the long-term contract issue that I was planning to raise next, as none of the remaining players have contracts that interfere with Melnyk's infamous "run of unparalleled success." It also deals with positional needs, as there are only forwards left.

So who does that leave?

As discussed above, David Backes could be an option if he does indeed decide to waive his no-trade clause, the other two options are Jeff Carter of the Los Angeles Kings, and Derek Stepan of the Arizona Coyotes. Los Angeles does not seem like a great option for either Anderson or Pageau, as they are in about the same stage of a rebuild as the Sens, but Carter could be acquired in a separate trade after one of them is dealt. Stepan does actually provide some value for Arizona, but they could trade him if they're looking to create some cap space to make a run, given they've shown signs of improvement last season, just narrowly missing the playoffs. Boston has cap space, but they also have two goalies they trust in Tuukka Rask and Jaroslav Halak, so if Backes were to come to Ottawa it would likely be in a Pageau trade.

Of course, all this is moot if the Sens don't get a trade they like. While both are free agents at the end of the season, the Sens have gotten almost all they could've out of Anderson and aren't surrendering much value at all if they let him walk after this season. Pageau, on the other hand, is still just 26 and could receive an extension to provide depth and leadership for the next era of the team. But if one or both of them are traded, these are the factors that will impact the return as well as some of the players who I think would be a fit.