Why the Sens might just be able to win the Stanley Cup

I have a confession to make. At the start of the year, I was expecting the Sens to finish 7th or 8th in the Atlantic. I saw a team with no direction, no system, and no way to properly use one of the greatest defencemen ever to play the game. I thought Pierre Dorion was unfit to be a GM in this league and would be out of a job by now. I was furious when I saw that they had traded away Mika Zibanejad for an aging centre who was passed his prime. Instead, Ottawa found a new way to be successful in the NHL.

The NBA has always been a league driven by its stars. From Bill Russell to Kareem Abdul-Jabbar to Michael Jordan to Kobe Bryant to LeBron James, if you were the best player in the league, you were going to win championships. It appears that this may seep into the NHL thanks to Guy Boucher and Erik Karlsson.

At the beginning of this decade, when the Blackhawks, Bruins and Kings were the dominate forces of the league, the path to the Cup was always through having 20 high-end players on the ice every night. Out of all of those teams, only one player was ever really considered as potentially the best in the game, Jonathan Toews, and that moniker was largely inaccurate. But now, with the Ottawa Senators coming within one goal of the Stanley Cup Finals, and possibly more, a new path to glory seems to have emerged. The formula is simple;

1. Have an elite player in his prime on your team. This step is not easy to follow, it involves good scouting, good development, and most of all, a whole lot of luck. Elite talent is not just a top player, but someone who may very well be the very best in the entire league. Karlsson fits that mold. The only other players that do are Crosby, Ovechkin, Stamkos, and McDavid. That's it. Other players such as Toews, Kane, Malkin, Seguin, Kopitar, Tavares, and Burns are all elite players, most of whom will probably be first ballot Hall of Famers (unless of course they play practically their entire career for one team, captaining them to two conference finals, a final and becoming one of the most respected and talented players of their eras, because apparently that's not enough to get you in) but do not have the talent required to carry a team on their backs.
2. A good goaltender. This is a relatively simple step. The goaltender does not need to be elite, like Carey Price or Braden Holtby, but merely above average and able to steal some games and not give many away. Craig Anderson may be aging, but he is certainly a very good goaltender who would have gotten some Vezina votes had he played the entire year.
3. Have a collection of good Top 6 forwards and Top 4 defenders along with some depth pieces. Ottawa's Top 6 has gone from an area of weakness to a potential strength of late. Hoffman, Stone and Turris are all great players. Hoffman has one of the best shots in the game, Stone is a skilled defender, leading the league in takeaways. While many will say that's merely a by-product of poor possession numbers, he actually ranks 41st among all forwards with at least 50 games played last season with a 54.35% Corsi (5v5 Close). Kyle Turris has a bit of both of those qualities, especially the shot, and has developed into a solid number one centreman. The second half of the Top 6 becomes a little weaker, with Derrick Brassard and Zack Smith holding spots 4 and 5. But Bobby Ryan has been declining of late but is still capable of playing good minutes and scoring some goals, as evidenced by his solid playoff run. The third line's strength makes up for some of the second line's short comings. Jean-Gabriel Pageau was more than just a playoff hero this year, despite what you may hear. A 12-goal season from the third line and one of Ottawa's top penalty killers, he's a player many teams would like on their third line. Ryan Dzingel may be the quickest accelerator in the league and when he's healthy, Clarke MacArthur can help provide some real good depth scoring. The fourth line is looking promising too, with Tom Pyatt signed for two more years providing some PK minutes and depth scoring, along with Colin White, who projects to get more than a cup of coffee with the team this year, likely moving up this list before the season is done. The final spot could belong to someone like Chris DiDomenico, who was solid in limited time this season, or for Nick Paul if he gets back on track. A free agent could also help boost this roster, be it Stalberg or Wingels, who both made good contributions last year. Or maybe the sign someone else like Brian Boyle, Drew Miller or Jacob Josefson. Perhaps they even try to make another splash by signing a Top 6 forwards and shuffling everyone down a bit to improve depth and top talent in one fell swoop. The defense took a hit when Marc Methot was selected by Vegas and then flipped to Dallas but it still remains a legitimate Top 4, despite what may be said. Erik Karlsson is the best defender of this era, no doubt about it, and whoever he plays with gets better. That was true with Marc Methot and will remain true whether he plays with Dion Phaneuf, who's not the player he used to be but is still an asset to a contending team, Fredrik Claesson, who in 33 games last season looked every bit like he belonged, or even top prospect, Thomas Chabot, who dominated the QMJHL last season and is ready to make an impact. Cody Ceci has received plenty of criticism for a poor 2016-17 season and playoffs but the fact of the matter is that he's still young and while an enormous leap forward justifying the use of a 15th overall pick seems unlikely, he can still eat up minutes and provide solid two-way play from the blueline. Chris Wideman is by no means a top player but on the third pairing he can provide offense and not be made a fool in his own end, which is more than some teams can say about their number 6 d-man. If Dion Phaneuf does end up getting traded, the Sens should make sure they get a good haul. If Ryan Strome is worth Jordan Eberle and Adam Larsson fetches you Taylor Hall then by that curve Edmonton won't think twice about McDavid for Phaneuf, 1-for-1. All joking aside, Dion Phaneuf has a bad contract but is a serviceable NHL defender who should be worth a player who can help Ottawa in other areas, such as rounding out the top 6, now. If he does go, Ben Harpur has looked like he could step into a bottom 2 role, so does Andreas Englund. Mark Borowiecki may not be very good but there is no reason he shouldn't be a number 7 guy.
4. Have a system that fits your team and works. Alright, I may not have done the best job at selling this team as a Cup contender but hear me out. Boucher's system works. It worked in Tampa and it worked here. In Tampa it quickly fell apart because he changed his style but he's more experienced now and knows how to get the best out of all his players, even Bobby Ryan bought into and endorsed the system. Because of the lack of a good shot quality stat, Ottawa looks like an analytical nightmare, but when watching their games there are very few high quality scoring chances against, and the ones they do give up Craig Anderson or Mike Condon or whoever come up clutch.

Last season, Ottawa came within one goal of a Stanley Cup final. They aren't going to lose any key pieces other than Methot and they have two young quality players knocking on the door ready to make their names in the league. This team has defied the odds and there's no reason that they can't keep dancing just because the clock struck midnight. Maybe this year they do it again, but they then score in the double overtime, and maybe, just maybe, the 2018 playoffs will end with Erik Karlsson hoisting the Stanley Cup and finally silence the critics and be recognized as one of the greatest who ever played the game.