With the Olympic news coming out, the process of projecting rosters has already begun, which is why I'm here to tell you that they've been doing it wrong. Well, maybe not all of them, and the results aren't particularly off from what I'd imagine the teams will turn out like, but I've noticed a pattern that always takes place with these sorts of projections. While it's hard to project which players will be the best options a year and a half from now, it seems that many don't even try. Take this example published by theScore, the roster is essentially just the top players today with Alexis Lafreniere added in to create the illusion of a far-off future.
I'm not going to sit here and say I can project who'll be what when 2022 rolls around, but I can use what we know from past Olympics to create a more realistic projection of Team Canada's 2022 Olympic roster. To do this, we will pick a roster made up of players that are the same age as the 2014 roster, the last time NHLers went to the games. By this I mean that, if Team Canada had one 31-year old defenceman in 2014, the 2022 team will have one 31-year old defenceman (all ages are as of the opening ceremonies of the respective Olympics). This may seem like an arbitrary set of rules (it is), but it plants us in reality away from dreaming of young superstars breaking onto the scene or ageless wonders sticking around forever.
Before we can start constructing the 2022 roster, we need to look back at 2014 to get our blueprint:
Forwards
Patrick Marleau (34)
Chris Kunitz (34)
Patrick Sharp (32)
Jeff Carter (29)
Rick Nash (29)
Ryan Getzlaf (28)
Corey Perry (28)
Patrice Bergeron (28)
Sidney Crosby (26)
Jonathan Toews (25)
Steven Stamkos (24)
Jamie Benn (24)
Matt Duchene (23)
John Tavares (23)
Defenceman
Dan Hamhuis (31)
Duncan Keith (30)
Jay Bouwmeester (30)
Shea Weber (28)
Marc-Édouard Vlasic (26)
Drew Doughty (24)
P.K. Subban (24)
Alex Pietrangelo (23)
Goalies
Roberto Luongo (34)
Mike Smith (31)
Carey Price (26)
The first thing I noticed was how young the cutoffs were, no forwards or goalies over 34 are eligible and while the likes of Patrick Marleau and Joe Thornton weren't expected to be part of the team, this knocks off Eric Staal, Jeff Carter and even Patrice Bergeron at forward along with Mike Smith, Marc-Andre Fleury, and Corey Crawford in nets. Somewhat surprisingly, the situation is even bleaker on the blueline, as the 31-year old age limit eliminates the entire 2014 defense corps except for Pietrangelo, as well as Mark Giordano, Kris Letang, and Brent Burns. This isn't to say that none of these players will be on the team in 2022, but just that history shows us that maybe we should think twice about assuming they won't slow down suddenly.
Next, we run into the opposite conundrum, the minimum ages. No skaters under 23 will make the team, which means that not only are 2020 top prospects Lafreniere and Quinton Byfield ineligible, but so are Robert Thomas, Nick Suzuki, Barrett Hayton, Kirby Dach, and Victor Mete. It's always possible that one or more of them defy the odds and force their way into the conversation and even the team, but it's best not to get too excited about seeing them representing Canada at the highest level anytime soon. Yes, if we go back to 2010 Crosby, Toews and Doughty were all under 22, but those players were at a level that these players, except maybe Lafreniere, probably can't expect to be at in time for the Olympics. In net, the minimum age of 26 means that Carter Hart, who's been floated as a potential starter for the games, will be left off the roster. Hart has the potential to be one of the top netminders in the world and he's passed every test so far, but expecting him to come so far, at such a young age, in such a short period of time, may be too much too ask.
Finally, we have what I call the "black hole ages" (yes, I've even came up with my own terminology for this imaginary project. Concerning, no?). These are the ages between the maximum and minimum ages where players are ineligible due to no one from the 2014 team fitting the description. Is it a bit ridiculous to arbitrarily remove players from consideration completely? Absolutely, but is it more ridiculous than naively believing that players will never age? You can decide that for yourself. At forward, black hole ages eliminate Brad Marchand and Jonathan Toews (33), John Tavares, Steven Stamkos and Matt Duchene (31), as well as Ryan O'Reilly, Taylor Hall and Tyler Seguin (30). On defence, we must bid adieu to Colin Miller (29), and Shea Theodore (26). Most worryingly, both the defence and forward positions cannot use any 27-year olds, which is right around the average age for both, yet bafflingly did not have any in that age group in 2014. The list of ineligible 27-year olds is long, but includes the likes of Sean Monahan, Morgan Rielly, Darnell Nurse, Tom Wilson, Matt Dumba, and Josh Morrissey, as well as seemingly the entire New York Islanders defence (Adam Pelech, Ryan Pulock, and Devon Toews). Lastly, the low total of three goalies means that the pickings will be slim for that position, but despite missing out on Jordan Binnington, Matt Murray, and Braden Holtby, among others, I think you'll see that there's still a decent trio that can be put together.
Before we can begin, I must admit that I made one executive decision. Eagle-eyed readers may notice that, much like Steve Yzerman before me, I did not include Martin St. Louis on my 2014 team. St. Louis was a replacement for injured Tampa teammate Steven Stamkos and that saga involved an array of bitterness that saw St. Louis traded to the Rangers at that year's trade deadline. Originally, I was going to include St. Louis, which meant I would have to find a 38-year old forward, but there was only one current Canadian NHLer who'll be 38 during the next Olympics: Jason Spezza. I wanted to put Spezza on the team, I really did, but despite a decent season with the Leafs this year, he's far from an Olympian now, much less 19 months from now. So instead, I stuck with the initial roster, bringing Steven Stamkos back and opening up another slot for a 24-year old forward.
With that lengthy preamble out of the way, let's begin with the forwards that will make up the 2022 Canadian Olympic Men's Hockey Team.
23-year old forward (2)
2014: Matt Duchene, John Tavares
2022: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Tyson Jost
Dubois is an easy choice for the first 23-year old, as he's already developed into an elite playmaker and 20-goal scorer. Jost, on the other hand, has topped 10 goals in his first two seasons with Colorado and was 50/50 to do it again this year before the season was suspended. While his play has been far from spectacular, as a former 10th overall pick, Jost looks like as safe a bet as any to take his game to the next level in the next season and a half.
Missed the cut: Dillon Dube, Jordan Kyrou
24-year old forward (3)
2014: Jamie Benn, Steven Stamkos
2022: Mathew Barzal, Anthony Cirelli, Mitch Marner
This category is where I made my second executive decision. While the 2014 team only had 2 24-year old forwards, they also had 2 24-year old defenceman. The 25-player roster allows for an extra forward, defenceman, and goalie, with one flex spot available. In 2014, Team Canada used in on a defenceman, but the vast chasm in talent between 24-year old forwards and 24-year old defenceman means that even with the strictly imposed rules, I cannot in good conscience leave any of these three off of the team. This trio gives us a diverse group of young talent, Barzal's the sniper, Marner's the playmaker, and Cirelli is the two-way ace. With some of the team's top players aging out, they'll be more than capable in injecting some youth into the lineup.
Missed the cut: Anthony Beauvillier, Travis Konecny, Dylan Strome
25-year old forward (1)
2014: Jonathan Toews
2022: Connor McDavid
No real discussion here, even though there are plenty of players in this category I'd love to see on the team, there's no way not to have McDavid in this slot.
Missed the cut: Jake DeBrusk, Brayden Point
26-year old forward (1)
2014: Sidney Crosby
2022: Nathan MacKinnon
Just like McDavid, MacKinnon is the obvious choice. Quite possibly the second best player in the world, MacKinnon should give the team a dominant one-two punch down the middle.
Missed the cut: Max Domi, Bo Horvat
28-year old forward (3)
2014: Patrice Bergeron, Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry
2022: Jonathan Huberdeau, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Mark Scheifele
Huberdeau has quietly developed into a high-end goal offensive weapon the past few seasons, reaching the 30-goal mark and notching 92 points. Huberdeau gives the team a potentially elite scorer when playing with more high-end talent. Nugent-Hopkins has never quite lived up to the promise as a first overall pick but having put up numerous 20-goal years in Edmonton while rarely getting time with high-end talent as he's been largely anchoring the second line behind McDavid and Draisaitl. Scheifele is one of the players that makes Canada the dominant power it's been for the past decade in best-on-best tournaments. He's the top centre on his team and one of the best in the league, yet is a bottom six forward on the team. He's the type of player the team can rely on to play up to 15 minutes a night and occasionally take over.
Missed the cut: Phillip Danault, Barclay Goodrow
29-year old forward (2)
2014: Jeff Carter, Rick Nash
2022: Sean Couturier, Mark Stone
While Canada has enough talent to put together two teams that could out gun most other countries, historically their true dominance has come from players that can play a true 200-foot game, driving play at both ends. Couturier and Stone are two of the league's top defensive forwards and are both 30-goal scorers, so their inclusion on the team gives Canada a pair of players who can control the game and contribute to their dominance.
Missed the cut: Brendan Gallagher, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Jaden Schwartz, Tyler Toffoli
32-year old forward (1)
2014: Patrick Sharp
2022: Logan Couture
This is where the arbitrary age marker causes problems, given that players like Brad Marchand and Jonathan Toews are a year too old while John Tavares and Steven Stamkos are a year too young, the latter being ineligible by just four days. Still, aging is unpredictable, especially for skilled forwards, and Couture isn't necessarily any more or less likely to regress than any of the others listed above. If he ends up being the best of the bunch by 2022, Canada still gets a high-end offensive player, and if they get playoff Logan Couture the tournament is essentially over before it begins.
Missed the cut: Jamie Benn, Mike Hoffman
34-year old forward (2)
2014: Chris Kunitz, Patrick Marleau
2022: Sidney Crosby, Claude Giroux
Our roster lucks out by having these two fall into the age 34 group, as Crosby is still one of the best in the world right now and Giroux continues to be great in Philadelphia. Still, it's important not to overestimate how good they may still be by the next Olympics. While Marleau was still great in 2014, his sharp decline would begin shortly thereafter, while Kunitz was mostly there as a linemate for Crosby. Yes, Crosby and Giroux are likely better than Marleau and Kunitz respectively, but the thought of the two of them being top line players for Canada in a year and a half may be a touch hopeful. Still, they should remain among the best in the world, giving Canada a pair of elite vets to go along with the blossoming young stars.
Due to the lower age limit on defence, there's significantly more turnover than at forward. This unit may not appear to be outstanding on the surface, but looking back at 2014 theirs doesn't either and yet it was dominant. With a team as skilled as Canada, the key is to find seven or eight defenders who are responsible in their own end and/or skilled enough not to take away from the talent up front.
23-year old defenceman (1)
2014: Alex Pietrangelo
2022: Cale Makar
Makar already looks like one of the best defenceman in the league, so give him a bit more time and he could be a valuable piece for Canada in Beijing. His offensive prowess is well-known and as he matures his defensive game should improve, creating the potential for a superstar despite his young age. While I still stand by my point that it's important when projecting these rosters not to get overly excited about potential, Makar is just too tantalizing not to.
Missed the cut: Dante Fabbro, Samuel Girard
24-year old defenceman (1)
2014: Drew Doughty, P.K. Subban
2022: Thomas Chabot
As you may recall, this is the slot we removed one player from to add another 24-year old forward. While it's entirely possible that more defenceman develop to the level required to make the team by 2022, there just aren't any others that would seem to have that potential. Chabot, though, is already logging massive minutes for Ottawa and looks like he has the potential to quickly develop into one of the league's top d-men. If he does, that gives Canada a bright future and present on the blueline.
Missed the cut: Ethan Bear, Jeremy Lauzon
25-year old defenceman (1)
2014: Marc-Édouard Vlasic
2022: Vince Dunn
There were a handful of strong candidates for this spot, put I'm going to go with the players who I think best exemplifies the spirit of Vlasic with Dunn. While Dunn isn't the defensive specialist Vlasic was, he's a solid two-way player who can put up double digit goals in a full season. Much like Vlasic though, he was never really thought of as a national team player until he made the team. Vlasic often played in Brent Burns' shadow in San Jose, much like Dunn does today with Alex Pietrangelo (and Colton Parayko) in St. Louis. Despite his lack of name recognition, Dunn was a big part of the Blues championship, and could be an unsung hero for Canada in 2022.
Missed the cut: Travis Dermott, Aaron Ekblad, Haydn Fleury
28-year old defenceman (1)
2014: Shea Weber
2022: Dougie Hamilton
Despite what the anti-museum lobby may tell you, Dougie Hamilton is quite simply an elite defenceman. Despite his size, however, he's not Shea Weber, but an offensive weapon similar to Brent Burns in his prime. While Burns didn't make the team in 2014, Hamilton should be an easy choice as he's a much better all-around player than Burns was.
Missed the cut: Colton Parayko
30-year old defenceman (2)
2014: Jay Bouwmeester, Duncan Keith
2022: Tyson Barrie, Brayden McNabb
Yeah I'm not thrilled with this either, but these were the only two available. That said, while Keith spent the better part of a decade being an elite blueliner, Bouwmeester, while solid, was never at that level. What we're looking for in putting together this roster is not for the players who'll leave the best legacies, but a snapshot of who's the best at the moment. Will Barrie and/or McNabb fit that description? Probably not, but they could, which for the purpose of this is enough to put them on the team.
Missed the cut: None
31-year old defenceman (1)
2014: Dan Hamhuis
2022: Alex Pietrangelo
Pietrangelo goes from being the youngest defenceman in 2014 to the oldest in 2022. Since 2014, Pietrangelo has become a captain, a Stanley Cup champion, and one of the most consistent blueliners in the game. If he stays close to his current level, he should be a more than capable member of the team while providing the experience and leadership this back-end seems to need.
Missed the cut: Ryan Ellis, David Savard
That just leaves us with the goalies and I'm not gonna lie to you, this part had me worried. Canada's struggles in developing a new generation of netminders has been well documented and by imposing this set of rules on the roster an already weak position had the potential to become a disaster. But then I realized that, since Canada has no obvious choice in net, there's no one that cannot be left off the roster. While the trio I came up with may not be the best three, their certainly all in consideration for the real team.
26-year old goalie (1)
2014: Carey Price
2022: Tristan Jarry
Jarry had been stuck behind Matt Murray for the past few seasons in Pittsburgh, but this year his .921 save percentage was enough to have him essentially split time with the two-time Stanley Cup winner. Much like in 2017 with the Vegas expansion draft, Pittsburgh seems poised to lose one of their goalies to Seattle in 2021. Whether Jarry takes the reigns in Pittsburgh after Murray leaves, is exposed and becomes Seattle's starter, or is on any of the other 30 teams in the league, he looks to have the potential to be a good-to-great starter and someone worthy of inclusion on the roster.
Missed the cut: None
31-year old goalie (1)
2014: Mike Smith
2022: Darcy Kuemper
We once again turn to the Coyotes for this pick, as Kuemper has emerged as a sneaky-good goalie the past two seasons, turning in a Vezina-cablire campaign this year with Antti Raanta hurt once again. Kuemper may be a fluke, but he may just as well be the latest in a long line of goalies who take their game to the next level in their 30s. If he does, Canada may have dodged a bullet with their decade of poor goaltending prospects and have found their starter after all.
Missed the cut: Jake Allen, Michael Hutchinson
34-year old goalie (1)
2014: Roberto Luongo
2022: Carey Price
As is tradition, Team Canada will bring back their last starter to sit on the bench in these Olympics. While the 8 year gap is bigger than usual, Price still looks like the best choice for this slot. Price's status as an elite goaltender has been hotly contested in recent years, and he does not appear to be trending towards being that in 2022. That said, Canada has no clear number one, so Price may be just as good a bet as any to help carry the team to victory in a short tournament.
Missed the cut: Cam Talbot
We did it, we imposed restrictions to help make the team more realistic and were able to put together a team worthy of those that came before. The entire roster and a rough lineup is below:
Jonathan Huberdeau - Connor McDavid - Mark Stone
Claude Giroux - Sidney Crosby - Nathan MacKinnon
Pierre-Luc Dubois - Sean Couturier - Mark Scheifele
Logan Couture - Anthony Cirelli - Mathew Barzal
Tyson Jost - Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
Thomas Chabot - Dougie Hamilton
Vince Dunn - Cale Makar
Brayden McNabb - Alex Pietrangelo
Tyson Barrie
Darcy Kuemper
Carey Price
Tristan Jarry
Do I think this will be the roster Canada ices in 2022? No, but this is a more reasonable outline of the talent level we should expect from them? Yes. There are players who aren't on this roster that probably should, but even though it's only a year and a half away, a lot can change in that time. Even with the restrictions in place, this team looks dominant and would probably be the favourite to win gold. The lesson here (if you're looking for something like that) is that while things change, that change does not mean that they'll be massive repercussions. Also, Canada is really good at hockey