Tuesday 25 February 2020

Senators Trade Deadline Review

The biggest day of the Sens rebuild is done.

That might be an overstatement. Given that they have made some big moves and the crucial 2020 draft looms large, but there's no denying that the Sens went into yesterday's trade deadline with a handful of valuable assets that they absolutely needed to cash in. Before we go on with what will inevitably be a brutal slog of borderline unwatchable hockey (feel the excitement!) let's take a look back at the moves the team did (and didn't) make.

The Trades

The Sens made six trades on Monday and the days leading up to the deadline, including one involving a player who immediately signed a long term extension. That said the deadline was quieter than most in recent memory for Sens fans, who have become used to expecting to see unquestionable star players on the block. Some of these trades were major and among the biggest of the day/week, some were basic rental-for-pick swaps, and a surprisingly large amount of them involved Aaron Luchuk. Let's take a look at them all now in chronological order.

Sens trade Dylan DeMelo to the Jets for a 2020 3rd-round pick

DeMelo has become somewhat of a fan favourite since coming over from San Jose in the Karlsson trade. In his first season he and Thomas Chabot were joined at the hip at even strength and both excelled. Under DJ Smith this season DeMelo's spot on the top pairing has been lost to Ron Hainsey and Nikita Zaitsev. While this is likely a bad move given that DeMelo being one of only three Sens regulars with an xGF% over 50 this season while Hainsey and Zaitsev are below that mark, DeMelo was a pending free agent who likely did not fit into the Senators' long-term plans. A 3rd seems slightly below market value however, although the Jets may well miss the playoffs and the pick could turn out to be in the early 70s.

Grade: C

Sens trade Max Veronneau to Toronto for Aaron Luchuk and a conditional 2021 6th-round pick

At the end of last season Veronneau was the team's big college free agent signing. But after playing only 16 games with the team over the past two years, with no goals in four this year, the team decided to reunite with prospect Aaron Luchuk, who has only put up decent numbers in the ECHL this year but is two years younger than Veronneau. The sixth only comes into play if Veronneau ends up playing semi-regularly for the Leafs, which seems unlikely. Luchuk was flipped to Montreal a few days later. No one should care about this trade.

Grade: B-

Sens trade Vladislav Namestnikov to the Avalanche for a 2021 4th-round pick

When the Sens used a 4th rounder in October to acquire Namestnikov the hope seemed to be that he would provide enough value to either be worth re-signing or to bring back more than a 4th later in the year. While Namestnikov was a solid penalty killer and netted 13 goals for the team, his overall performance was more or less as expected and thus Pierre Dorion was only able to get a 4th back. That said, we're just looking at this trade and not the earlier one, so getting market value for a 3rd line winger on an expiring contract is just about as routine as you can get for a rebuilder.

Grade: B+

Sens trade Jean-Gabriel Pageau to the Islanders for a conditional 2020 1st-round pick, a 2020 2nd-round pick, and a conditional 2022 3rd-round pick

While it was no Mark Stone or Matt Duchene blockbuster, the Sens still traded their leading scorer and a player who'd been a fan favourite over the course of his eight years with the team. The Sens did well to get a first rounder, especially one from a team who's barely holding down a wildcard spot in the very strong Metropolitan Division. Adding a second to the haul is no small feat either and the team has been widely applauded for the move. That said... I'm not sure I like this as much as everyone else seems to. Trading Pageau was absolutely the right move and the contract he signed with the Islanders is much too long for my liking given that he'll be 33 when it expires, but it's not hard to think they could have gotten even more. A first and a second is more than fair and I still think the team handily won this trade, but this week saw Barclay Goodrow fetch a first and the same Islanders that acquired Pageau saw Andy Greene as worth a second. On top of that, the Sens' big move last deadline, the Mark Stone trade, saw them acquire Erik Brannstrom in large part to the knowledge that Stone would sign a long-term deal with the Golden Knights afterwards. Pageau is no Mark Stone, but in this case it seems like the Sens weren't able to get anything even though Pageau immediately signed a six-year deal. The Pageau trade was even done in the morning, when the team could've given permission to the Islanders to speak with him about a contract extension before making the trade like they did with Vegas and Mark Stone. All that aside however, this trade is absolutely huge for the Sens rebuild and increases the potential windfall in the coming draft.

Grade: A

Sens acquire Matthew Peca from Montreal for Aaron Luchuk and a 2020 7th-round pick

The Sens need warm bodies for the last month and a bit and Matthew Peca provides just that. Aaron Luchuk continues to pick up frequent flyer points, something that will come in handy to the budget Senators when they inevitably acquire him again this summer. The Sens have so many picks in the coming draft there was a good chance Pierre Dorion would have forgotten to make this one. This trade is probably the most impactful Aaron Luchuk trade the team made all week.

Grade: B

Sens trade Tyler Ennis to the Oilers for a 2021 5th-round pick

Tyler Ennis was signed this summer to be traded yesterday. His $800,000 cap hit made him an ideal fit for a team near the cap like Edmonton is and his ability to score will come in handy down the stretch. A fifth seems low considering he may score 20 goals this year and is slated to play with Connor McDavid for the time being (now that I think about it, he may score 30) but the trade was done close to the deadline so this was probably all the team was ever going to get.

Grade: C-

The Non-Trades

This trade deadline may very well be defined around the league by the moves that didn't happen. Names like Joe Thornton and Zach Parise seemed to be on their way out but stayed with San Jose and Minnesota respectively. Chris Kreider was probably the biggest name available but he opted to re-sign with the Rangers. For the Sens they held on to two veterans in Ron Hainsey and Craig Anderson. Anderson has been a backbone of this team for nearly a decade now and is probably the best goaltender in franchise history. Talk has even begun about having his number retired by the team. He has more than earned the right to stay if he wants to. If you have a black heart are an objective analyst the fact that he has a high cap hit and a lacklustre past few seasons means he probably wouldn't have fetched much and meant we'd need to call up another rookie goalie until Nilsson recovered from his injury. Ron Hainsey's signing seemed to have been done with an eye to the deadline much like the Ennis one, albeit with a higher cap hit. However, with Mark Borowiecki hurt the rest of the blueline consists of Thomas Chabot, Nikita Zaitsev, Christian Jaros, Andreas Englund, Mike Reilly, and Hubert Labrie (???), so keeping Hainsey seemed necessary.

The Final Verdict

The Sens did what they had to this deadline. They traded away their top asset as well as a few other rentals for some futures. The team looks awful, which is good for securing better lottery odds and enough veterans were kept or added that the kids can make a playoff run in Belleville and stay far away from this mess.

Grade: A-


Stats courtesy of corsicahockey.com