Senators Season Preview Part 2.5 - Trades

This post is going to be a bit different than the first two parts of the season preview. Last time, I mentioned how Craig Anderson and Jean-Gabriel Pageau could be traded before opening day, but such a move would be complicated by the cap floor. Originally, the plan was to go off on a tangent about trade options within the piece, but the numerous factors involved convinced me that it was worthy of its own piece.

Assuming once again that Colin White signs for around $4 million annually, and no other NHL free agents are signed, then Ottawa's projected cap hit would sit around $66 million, $3.5 million above the floor. This means that any trade involving Anderson would need to involve a player coming back or salary retained. On a budget team, paying a player for nothing doesn't seem to be in the cards, unless absolutely necessary like in the Phaneuf trade, so in all likelihood any trade for Anderson would see an NHL player coming back. While Pageau could be traded away and the team would stay below the floor, taking on a contract in return would allow for more financial flexibility as well as the possibility of receiving a better asset in return, depending on how badly a team wants out from under the contract.

With that in mind, let's take a look at a few factors that the team will be looking for in any possible returns for either player.

Higher Cap Hit than Salary

When trying to reach the floor on a budget, few things are more valuable than a player who has already received their salaries for the high paying years bringing up the average annual value of the contract, thus having a higher cap hit than salary. The recently acquired Artem Anisimov earned $5.75 million in the first year of his deal and $5 million in the second and third years. Chicago already paid half of the $4 million he's owed this year in the form of a signing bonus, so the $2 million he's still owed this year and the $3 million next year both come well below his $4.55 million cap hit. Nikita Zaitsev is in a similar situation. 

By my count, there are currently 26 players in the league with a cap hit at least $1 million higher than their salaries that the Sens could target in a trade. That said, some of them are slated to earn raises in the coming years and eventually exceed their cap hits in the future, that would mean Nick Schmaltz, Timo Meier, Jakob Chychrun, Christian Dvorak, Michael Matheson, and Mats Zuccarello do not fit this description, although I can't imagine any of them would even have been in play to begin with.  That still leads us with 21 players to look at through this process of elimination though, so there's plenty of options.

No NTCs

The Senators have been a disaster on and off the ice the past couple of seasons, meaning that very few players would be likely to waive their no-trade clauses to join the team or that Ottawa is included on their no-trade lists. That said, Nikita Zaitsev did waive his no-trade clause as he wanted out of Toronto, so we'll still look at some players who may be willing to waive their clauses to come to Ottawa. Furthermore, we will make an exception for players with career-ending injuries as they won't care who's paying their salaries, but we will touch on them later. Patrice Bergeron, Duncan Keith, Henrik Lundqvist, Jeff Petry, Michael Frolik, Braden Holtby, Phil Kessel, Loui Eriksson, and Corey Crawford all fall out of contention in this category, but there is one player that I think could still waive. David Backes was often relegated to the fourth line or even the press box for much of Boston's season and subsequent Cup final run, so there might be a willingness for him to look for a fresh start somewhere else, even if that somewhere is Ottawa. Even with Backes not coming off the board, we're now down to only eleven players who fit the mold, and we're only about halfway through...

No Injured Players

For most teams near the cap floor, finding a player with a career-ending injury and taking on their contract is a great way to get assets and/or reach the floor. That said, most of the players in that category have been on that list long enough that the team clearly is in no rush to move the player. Moreover, this would involve paying the player for nothing, something that I can't imagine Eugene Melnyk would be a fan of, and even if he was he could quite simply retain some of Anderson/Pageau's salary. Because of this, Henrik Zetterberg, Marian Hossa, Johan Franzen, David Clarkson, Nathan Horton, and Ryan Callahan are all off the board, leaving us with only five candidates left.

Little value to their teams

An issue with taking on a bad contract is just that: the contract is bad. A player that still provides their team with some value, even if they don't live up to the deal, aren't the types of players that a team will just throw into a deal for nothing, which should be the Sens approach if they want to still get a decent future return in a trade. Montreal captain Shea Weber and reigning Conn Smythe winner Ryan O'Reilly are both well-above the tier of salary dump players, which leaves us with just three players remaining. This category also deals with the long-term contract issue that I was planning to raise next, as none of the remaining players have contracts that interfere with Melnyk's infamous "run of unparalleled success." It also deals with positional needs, as there are only forwards left.

So who does that leave?

As discussed above, David Backes could be an option if he does indeed decide to waive his no-trade clause, the other two options are Jeff Carter of the Los Angeles Kings, and Derek Stepan of the Arizona Coyotes. Los Angeles does not seem like a great option for either Anderson or Pageau, as they are in about the same stage of a rebuild as the Sens, but Carter could be acquired in a separate trade after one of them is dealt. Stepan does actually provide some value for Arizona, but they could trade him if they're looking to create some cap space to make a run, given they've shown signs of improvement last season, just narrowly missing the playoffs. Boston has cap space, but they also have two goalies they trust in Tuukka Rask and Jaroslav Halak, so if Backes were to come to Ottawa it would likely be in a Pageau trade.

Of course, all this is moot if the Sens don't get a trade they like. While both are free agents at the end of the season, the Sens have gotten almost all they could've out of Anderson and aren't surrendering much value at all if they let him walk after this season. Pageau, on the other hand, is still just 26 and could receive an extension to provide depth and leadership for the next era of the team. But if one or both of them are traded, these are the factors that will impact the return as well as some of the players who I think would be a fit.

Senators Season Preview Part 2 - Opening Night

Last time we took a look at who we should be expecting to see open camp with the team in September. If you missed that one, or want a refresher, you can find it here. Today, the focus will shift to what will happen when the calendar flips to October and the team takes the ice for the regular season. Last time players were divided into new faces and old faces, as well as by their experience. Today, they'll be broken down into five categories based on their likelihood of making the roster on October 2, when the team opens the season in Toronto.

Sure Things (16)

At forward, this group consists of the team's top offensive weapons like Brady Tkachuk, Colin White, Anthony Duclair, Bobby Ryan, and Chris Tierney. It also includes veterans presences with Mikkel Boedker, as well as recently acquired players Tyler Ennis, Connor Brown, and Artem Anisimov. True, players like Boedker and Anisimov may not move the needle much for a team, but given the Sens position and, sigh, the cap hit, it would make no sense whatsoever to leave them out of the lineup come opening night. Defenders in this category are Thomas Chabot, Dylan DeMelo, Christian Wolanin, Ron Hainsey, Nikita Zaitsev, and Mark Borowiecki. Even though Zaitsev and Borowiecki are likely destined for the 3rd pairing at best, they're included here for much of the same reasons as Anisimov: veteran presences who will help the team reach the cap floor. Another thing Zaitsev has going for him is the assets the Sens surrendered to acquire him. While it was more of a cap dump than a hockey trade, but even so, giving up on a player after making him the centrepiece of your marquee off-season trade would be even beyond the usual levels of calamity that we've come to expect from the hockey ops department. In goal, Anders Nilsson earned himself a nice new contract with his stellar play since being acquired from Vancouver in January so it's safe to assume he's more or less locked into the starters role for the upcoming season.

Sure Things But... (2)

If Jean-Gabriel Pageau and/or Craig Anderson are on the roster come opening night, they'll be in the lineup. However, they have both been rumoured to be on the market for over a year now so a trade could happen at any time. The details of a trade for one or both of them would be complicated by the salary floor, so much so that their status warrants its own piece, check back for that soon. For now, though, let's assume they're on the team.

On the Bubble (16)

With our assumption that Pageau and Anderson will still be on the team, our opening night roster is down to just 5 available spots. That may typically make for a lousy training camp, but in this case there are over a dozen players with a legitimate claim to one of those spots. Only 10 forwards have been penciled into the lineup already, which leaves room for two thirds of a forward line as well as some scratches. Out of those forwards, Drake Batherson is as close as a sure thing as you can get and still wind up here, as he was utterly dominant in Belleville last season and despite some substantial troubles when called-up,  had stretches where he definitely looked like he belonged in the NHL. Rudolfs Balcers is another player who'll hope to build off of an impressive 2018-19 season, while Logan Brown, Filip Chlapik, Vitali Abramov, and Alex Formenton will try and stick around for a bit longer than last time. The most interesting players in my opinion are those who I labeled as "tweeners" in yesterday's post. Jack Rodewald, Nick Paul, and Max Veronneau are 25, 24, and 23 respectively and in today's NHL that's not nearly as young as it may seem. Paul and Rodewald both project to be not much more than NHL depth but they'll probably need to prove it this year or risk being shipped out for younger, cheaper options with more upside. Max Veronneau probably gets a bit of a longer leash as he's the youngest of the trio and just signed at the end of last season and while I agree that he does have the most potential, he'll need to prove that he can play at the highest level sooner than later. Finally, veteran Jordan Szwarz captained the Providence Bruins last season, scoring 23 goals in 68 games. He's nothing special, but if the team opts to let the youngsters play big minutes in Belleville instead of sitting in the press box, Szwarz would be a natural choice to fill the role of 23rd man. On defense there's one spot available, assuming the team goes with 14 forwards. That would come down to Erik Brannstrom, Christian Jaros, Cody Goloubef, and Maxime Lajoie. Out of those four, Jaros played the most games with Ottawa last season so the spot is probably his to lose. That said, Brannstrom has the most potential to force himself onto the team with his play and has succeeded at every level so far. If neither of them have a strong camp and the team decides they could use more seasoning, Cody Goloubef wouldn't be a terrible choice as the 7th defender or the team could take another look at Max Lajoie. Under the assumption that Anderson stays with the team, the two goalie positions are set, but if he doesn't the spot will most likely come down to a battle between Mike Condon and Marcus Hogberg. The edge would probably go to Hogberg as he's already shown what he can do at the AHL level and could be given a make-or-break opportunity to clarify the future of the Sens' goalie situation. We'll revisit this battle when we look at the possible scenarios of an Anderson trade.

Maybe Later (13)

These players have almost no chance of making the team out of camp. However, almost all of them could/will have a future with the team as teams rarely invite players to camp who they know will never play for them. Note that I said they have ALMOST no chance of making the team. If I had done this list last year, its quite possible that Maxime Lajoie would've been here and he ended up making the team out of camp and even got off to a hot start before eventually fizzling out. At forward, recently acquired Leafs Michael Carcone and Morgan Klimchuk top the list who, along with players like Josh Norris and Jonathan Davidsson, should provide solid upper-tier depth for Belleville this season and are the most likely of this category to see some time in Ottawa next season. Like Norris, Johnny Gruden will be attending his first NHL training camp fresh off signing his entry-level deal, but probably won't come as close to making the team this year. The forwards here are Parker Kelly, Jean-Christophe Beaudin and Andrew Sturtz. The defence is headlined by Andreas Englund who may actually be the most NHL-ready of the group but there are less d-spots to go around so he'll hope for a strong camp as well as a miracle to get any shot. Yesterday I said that I thought Lassi Thomson was more NHL ready than some people might think but he falls victim to the lack of defense spots as well, though even with less traffic in front of him he probably wouldn't even be optimistically ready for this season. Nick Ebert is probably the least likely player here ever to wear a Sens uniform here, but he could provide some nice depth. In net, Joey Daccord and Filip Gustavsson both saw time with Ottawa last season and both very well could again this year. But with 4 healthy goalies ahead of them on the depth chart, their focus right now will be on making it to Belleville to start the season.

Others (2)

Marian Gaborik and Clarke MacArthur give us the opportunity to be sad again! However, yesterday I said that this could've been the 'LTIR' category, that is untrue. Both players are in fact only on the IR. This is critical as their contracts will help the team reach the cap floor this season. See? Much less sad!

In conclusion

So there you have it, my best guess at what the team will look like come opening night (courtesy of CapFriendly). Batherson, Formenton, Brown, and Veronneau got the forward spots and Jaros is the 7th defenceman. The tightest decisions were between Brown/Balcers and Jaros/Goloubef. I eventually went with Brown simply because I think he's slightly better than Balcers, although I could be convinced otherwise, and with Jaros because I think he's better and that he looked like he could play at the NHL level last season, so he probably wouldn't benefit much from another stint in Belleville, although the option will always be there.

So, how good is this team? We assumed they'd be bad, but are they? Using Sean Tierney's awesome lineup creator tool this lineup would project to put up 85 points. Not great but miles better than the 64 that saw them come dead last in 2018-19. With some adjustments made to the line combinations, that number can get up to the low 90s. Does this seem reasonable? Probably not as these are projections use general trends and apply them without factoring in who the team will play this season (4 games against the Lightning and Bruins aren't your average inter-divisional game), but the fact that Tierney uses Evolving Hockey's very reputable model at least allows for some optimism for the future.

Does any of this matter until Eugene Melnyk is gone? Would it be nice to bottom out in a year with one of the best drafts in recent memory instead of the one where we don't even have our own first round pick? Those are questions for another day!

Senators Summer Season Preview Part 1 - Training Camp

It's late July. The draft has passed, trades have been made, and free agency is mostly done (someone please tell Jake Gardiner that last one). We are about as far from hockey season as we can possibly be. So let's talk some hockey. Specifically, let's talk about the Ottawa Senators. They're almost certainly going to be bad this year. They've finished last and second last the past two seasons and that was with the likes of Erik Karlsson, Mark Stone, Matt Duchene, Ryan Dzingel, and Mike Hoffman lending a hand. Without any of these pieces, the Sens look like they'll be, to use the technical term, a dumpster fire.

But this blog is not a space to be down on ourselves, and, if you just ignore the past ~2 years of my writing, you'll know that I'm nothing if not an optimist when it comes to this stuff. Training camp is just around the corner in a way I guess so with that in mind, let's reacquaint ourselves with our beloved tolerated Ottawa Senators!

Who's Gone?

If you're a Sens fan who has not spent 2019 living under a rock you're probably well aware of the departures of Mark Stone, Matt Duchene, and Ryan Dzingel, as well as more recent departures such as Cody Ceci, Ben Harpur, and (just yesterday) Zack Smith. But those are far from the only faces that will not be making a return appearance to training camp. In fact, out of the 57 players to open camp with the team last season, 28 are no longer with the organization. The full list is below:

Jordan Hollett (G)

Mike McKenna (G)

Jonathan Aspirot (D)
Julius Bergman (D)
Erik Burgdoerfer (D)
Cody Ceci (D)
Macoy Erkamps (D)
Ben Harpur (D)
Erik Karlsson (D)*
Stuart Percy (D)
Patrick Sieloff (D)
Chris Wideman (D)
Chase Balisy (F)
Matt Duchene (F)
Ryan Dzingel (F)
Gabriel Gagné (F)
Joe Labate (F)
Boston Leier (F)
Gregor MacLeod (F)
Max McCormick (F)
Jim O'Brien (F)
Magnus Paajarvi (F)
Francis Perron (F)*
Tom Pyatt (F)
Ben Sexton (F)
Jack Skille (F)
Zack Smith (F)
Adam Tambellini (F)

*Karlsson and Perron were traded just days after camp broke and for all intents and purposes were not part of the 2018-19 Senators season. This means the players acquired in the trade (Chris Tierney, Dylan DeMelo, Josh Norris, and Rudolfs Balcers) are not included in the start of camp figures listed above, though all of them except Norris did attend.

That's some significant turnover, albeit some of those invitees, like Skille and Percy, were veterans trying to get another crack and some of them like, Leier and Tambellini, were quasi-prospects picked up in hopes of finding a diamond in the rough. That being said, just under half of the players who attended day one of training camp are already gone and don't be surprised if that number gets over 50% in two months time when camp officially gets underway.

So those are the players who will in all likelihood not be suiting up for the team in any capacity this season, but with such a large number of players gone, there'll have to be a host of new faces taking their places, let's look at some of the players who will/might make their first appearance at a Senators training camp in September.

New Faces

There are 4 categories that I think players can fit into coming into camp, Veteran, Prospects, Tweeners, and Others. I have sorted the new arrivals into said categories below.

Veterans (11)

This is the group of players that will either be vying for an NHL spot, or should comfortably make the roster, most of them don't provide much upside in terms of development but that's not always the case. A player like the recently acquired Artem Anisimov looks like he'll be little more than a warm body who'll put up 30-40 points while helping the team reach the cap floor, whereas Chris Tierney and Dylan DeMelo, who while technical entering their second training camp with the team were not here on day 1 last season, are younger and provide a nice mix of experience and potential. Other players in the Anisimov category include, well, basically the 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs with Tyler Ennis, Ron Hainsey, and Nikita Zaitsev as well as Cody Coloubef, Jordan Szwarz, and presumptive starting goaltender Anders Nilsson. Another former Leaf, Connor Brown, as well as Anthony Duclair, are the other members of the Tierney-DeMelo subcategory.

Prospects (9)

This is by far the most important category for a rebuilding team and they certainly have added a lot of new prospects this past season. These prospects have considerable range in potential as well as current ability, but for now we're just going to keep them all in one category, divided by position. At forward, the final piece of the Erik Karlsson trade, Josh Norris, will likely make his first appearance at camp after raising a few eyebrows after not returning to Michigan given that he missed about half of his last season due to injury. He'll be joined by other players acquired in trades over the past year: Michael Carcone, Vitali Abramov, Jonathan Davidsson, and Jean-Christophe Beaudin, as well as Johnny Gruden, who was drafted by the team in 2018 and has since signed an entry-level deal. On defense, there are only two new prospects from last year but they're big ones: Erik Brannstrom, who looks like he will be part of a potentially formidable top-4, and Lassi Thomson, who may not have been the most obvious or safest choice with the team's first selection in this year's draft, but offers some intriguing upside and could be closer to NHL ready than many think, but that's getting ahead of ourselves. Following the trend of quality-not-quantity, Joey Daccord is the only new goalie prospect and will look to build off of his breakout season with Arizona in the NCAA. If the team wants to get an up-close look at some more prospects, they still have plenty of unsigned players such as Markus Nurmi and Viktor Lodin, however by this time in the off-season most unsigned players will presumably stay where they are for the following season.

Tweeners (4)

This is a category that I'm going to use for the players who don't have much in the way of NHL experience but seem too old to really be considered prospects. Some of them may still have some upside, but for most of them, this is who they are and will need to show that they can at least look like a passable NHLer or they will probably find themselves in the "who's gone" category this time next year. At forward, this category includes Jack Rodewald and yet another former Maple Leaf in Morgan Klimchuk. My money would be on Rodewald if I had to bet on which one is most worth keeping an eye on, but I do believe Klimchuk is worth watching too. Even Max Veronneau, who was just signed at the end of last season, is already in this category given that he'll be 24 in December. On defense, the lone member is Nick Ebert, who may well have been better suited in the veterans category, but with no NHL games played and still just 25 years old, I'm not confident he's at that point quite yet, but I'd certainly imagine he's only here for AHL depth. There are no new goalies in this category.

Others (0)

There are no new players in this category

That gives us 24 of the 28 spaces to fill. The team could decide to add another veteran/tweener or two to compete for a spot and/or provide some AHL depth, or they may acquire a few more prospects in a trade, but this seems like it is more or less a comprehensive list of the new players who'll open camp with the team this September.

Old Faces

This section will be a lot less expansive, given that most fans are probably familiar with these players for the most part, but it would be wrong to leave them out so here we go.

Veterans (11)

At forward, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Mikkel Boedker, and Bobby Ryan are the only players to fit the traditional "veteran" mold, but on a team as young as the Senators, I'm willing to include Brady Tkachuk and Colin White, both of whom spent all of last season with the team and will likely have to be leaders this coming season. Mark Borowiecki would be the only returning traditional vet on the blueline but players like Thomas Chabot, Christian Wolanin, and Christian Jaros will likely play that role too. In goal, Craig Anderson will likely battle with Nilsson for playing time while Mike Condon will battle with arena security insisting that he really does play for the team and to let him get his stuff on for practice.

Prospects (8)

The new Senators rookies will be interesting to watch but the vast majority of the core prospects are returning players. Up front there's Logan Brown, Filip Chlapik, Rudolfs Balcers, Alex Formenton, Drake Batherson, and Parker Kelly, almost all of whom should reasonably have their sights set on making the team out of camp this year (sorry Parker). On defense, Max Lajoie will try and play his way back into the picture while goaltender Filip Gustavsson will try and find the form that was expected of him when the hockey world was ready to anoint him the next great Swedish net-minder.

Tweeners (4)

If you thought patience was running out with the new tweeners, imagine the pressure that will be on these guys to prove to the organization that they were right to hold onto them for so long. At forward there's the most famous example in Nick Paul as well as Andrew Sturtz. Defenceman Andreas Englund will probably never be the player that he looked like he could've been when he was drafted, but there's still time to prove that he could be a valuable asset to the rebuild, but not much. In nets Marcus Hogberg would presumably be the #2 goalie if Anderson is shipped out but barring that he'll need to show signs of improvement over last year to force the team to consider keeping him around, if only in a backup position.

Others (2)

This could've just been entitled "LTIR" as it includes Marian Gaborik and Clarke MacArthur. See? Now we're all sad! Hockey is fun!

In conclusion...

These two lists are essentially what the Sens will look like in training camp. Next time we'll look at who might make it out of camp and what it will all mean for the season.